PUBLIC SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1208 PM CDT SUN MAY 30 2004

VALID 301708Z - 310115Z

...OUTBREAK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS INCLUDING TORNADOES...LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS OVER PARTS OF THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI...LOWER OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEY TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT.

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER IN NORMAN OK IS FORECASTING THE DEVELOPMENT OF TORNADOES...LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS OVER PARTS OF THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI...LOWER OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEY LATER TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT.

THE AREAS MOST LIKELY TO EXPERIENCE THIS ACTIVITY INCLUDE:
MUCH OF ARKANSAS
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN ILLINOIS
WESTERN KENTUCKY
SOUTHERN AND EASTERN MISSOURI
WESTERN TENNESSEE

SURROUNDING THE HIGH RISK AREA...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM EASTERN IOWA...SOUTHERN WISCONSIN AND NORTHERN ILLINOIS THROUGH WESTERN AND CENTRAL INDIANA...CENTRAL KENTUCKY... MIDDLE TENNESSEE INTO NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI...NORTHWEST LOUISIANA...NORTHEAST TEXAS AND EASTERN OKLAHOMA.

A STRONG COLD FRONT EXTENDED FROM LOW PRESSURE OVER NORTHEASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA SOUTHWARD ACROSS SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA AND NORTHWEST IOWA THROUGH NORTHWEST MISSOURI AND SOUTHEAST KANSAS INTO NORTH CENTRAL AND WEST CENTRAL TX. A WARM FRONT REACHED FROM SOUTH CENTRAL MINNESOTA EAST SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS NORTHEAST ILLINOIS AND CENTRAL INDIANA AND NORTHEAST KENTUCKY. THE AIR MASS SOUTH OF THE WARM FRONT AND EAST OF THE COLD FRONT IS VERY MOIST AND UNSTABLE. MEANWHILE...SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL WINDS OF 50 TO 55 KNOTS EXTENDED FROM SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS NORTHEAST INTO CENTRAL IL. THIS COMBINED WITH 70-80 KT UPPER LEVEL WINDS FROM EXTREME WEST TEXAS INTO WEST CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI CREATED STRONG VERTICAL SHEAR FOR A VERY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR TORNADIC STORMS.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALREADY DEVELOPING ACROSS NORTHWEST MISSOURI INTO EXTREME SOUTHEAST KANSAS AND WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES EASTWARD TODAY EXTENDING FROM EASTERN IOWA SOUTHWEST INTO SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA TONIGHT. LINE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS...WITH SCATTERED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS AHEAD OF THE MAIN LINE...WILL MOVE INTO PARTS OF ILLINOIS...SOUTHEAST MISSOURI...WESTERN KENTUCKY AND ARKANSAS BY TONIGHT. MORE ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO SPREAD INTO PARTS OF SOUTHERN INDIANA AND WESTERN KENTUCKY INTO WRN TENNESSEE OVERNIGHT.

THIS IS POTENTIALLY A VERY DANGEROUS SITUATION. THOSE IN THE THREATENED AREA ARE URGED TO REVIEW SEVERE WEATHER SAFETY RULES AND TO LISTEN TO RADIO...TELEVISION...AND NOAA WEATHER RADIO FOR POSSIBLE WATCHES...WARNINGS...AND STATEMENTS LATER TODAY.

..MCCARTHY.. 05/30/2004