SPC AC 231950      STORM PREDICTION CENTER...NWS/NCEP...NORMAN OK    DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK...REF AWIPS GRAPHIC PGWE46 KWNS.      VALID 232000Z - 241200Z    THERE IS A HIGH RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS MUCH OF SERN TX AND MOST    OF LA...TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 ENE PSX 50 NNW VCT AUS TPL    GGG 30 SSW GLH 35 N MCB 15 ESE 7R4.      SUROUNDING THE HIGH RISK AREA...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS    FROM SOUTH-CENTRAL TX ACROSS LA INTO WRN MS...TO THE RIGHT OF A    LINE FROM 20 SW PSX HDO JCT 50 SE BWD 50 SSE DAL 20 N ELD UOX 20 NW    CBM MEI 25 W BVE.      SURROUNDING THE MDT RISK AREA...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS    TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 ENE CRP COT DRT SJT FTW TXK MEM MSL    0A8 30 SSE MOB.    GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 SW TUS PHX FMN    LVS PVW END JLN TBN MDH OWB CSV ABY AQQ.      ---POTENTIAL FOR WIDESPREAD DAMAGING WINDS AND A FEW STRONG    TORNADOES WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE EVENING FROM SOUTHEAST TX    EASTWARD ACROSS LOUISIANA---    ...SOUTHEAST TX/WRN LA THIS AFTERNOON...    SEE LATEST SPC MESOSCALE DISCUSSIONS AND WATCH DISCUSSIONS    REGARDING THE NEAR-TERM AND MESOSCALE HAZARDS ASSOCIATED WITH    TORNADIC STORMS ACROSS THIS REGION. SUPERCELL TSTMS CONTINUE TO    INITIATE WITHIN EXPANDING WARM SECTOR FROM THE SE TX GULF COAST    INLAND. VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE    THAT WARM FRONT CONTINUES TO LIFT NWD ACROSS THE REGION WITH STRONG    MLCAPE OF 1000-2000 J/KG FUELING ONGOING CONVECTION FROM WEST OF    HOU NEWD TO SHV AREA. STRONGEST COMBINATION OF FORCING FOR    ASCENT...SHEAR...AND INSTABILITY WILL CONTINUE TO BE INVOF SURFACE    LOW/WARM FRONT CURRENTLY ALONG A CLL-LFK LINE. TORNADOES HAVE    ALREADY BEEN REPORTED WITH STORMS IN THIS REGION AND ACTIVITY IS    EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO POSE A HAIL/WIND AND ISOLD STRONG TORNADO    THREAT AS IT LIFTS INTO LA THROUGH LATE THIS AFTERNOON.    ...TX HILL COUNTRY EWD TO SERN TX AND LA AFTER DARK...    ONGOING CONVECTION ACROSS ERN TX AND LA APPEARS TO BE DRIVEN BY    STRONG PRECURSOR SHORT WAVE TROUGH AND WARM AIR ADVECTION AHEAD OF    LARGER SCALE TROUGH SITUATED ACROSS NRN MEXICO. INTENSE MIDLEVEL    JET WITH 500MB WINDS OVER 80KT WILL ROUND THE BASE OF THIS TROUGH    AND EMERGE OVER THE LOWER RIO GRANDE VALLEY AND SOUTH CENTRAL TX    THIS EVENING. DEEP ASCENT AND STRONG FORCING WITHIN LEFT EXIT    REGION OF THE MIDLEVEL JET...AND ALONG SURFACE COLD FRONT...SHOULD    PROMOTE RENEWED CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT VICINITY OF THE HILL COUNTRY    AROUND 00Z. THIS CONVECTION MAY BE UNDERCUT BY DEEPENING COLD POOL    BEHIND THE FRONT. HOWEVER...DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND MIDLEVEL LAPSE    RATES WILL SUPPORT A LARGE HAIL THREAT EVEN FROM ELEVATED STORMS.    GREATER CHANCE FOR PREFRONTAL SURFACE-BASED TSTM DEVELOPMENT MAY    OCCUR ACROSS SERN TX IN THE 04Z-06Z TIME FRAME AS STRONG FORCING    AND WIND FIELDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER TROUGH DEVELOP INTO THIS    REGION. STRONGER INSTABILITY NEAR/ALONG THE GULF COAST SHOULD    SUSTAIN SEVERE POTENTIAL WITH THE THREAT OF DAMAGING WINDS...LARGE    HAIL...AND ISOLD TORNADOES SPREADING EWD FROM SERN TX AND INTO SRN    LA THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY.    ..CARBIN.. 12/23/02       NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED FOR 0100Z