471
WOUS40 KWNS 231640
PWOSPC
TXZ000-LAZ000-MSZ000-231700-

PUBLIC SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK
STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
11 AM CST MON 23 DEC 2002

...OUTBREAK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS INCLUDING A FEW STRONG TORNADOES AND SIGNIFICANT DAMAGING WINDS ARE EXPECTED OVER PARTS OF THE WESTERN GULF COAST REGION TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT.

THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER IN NORMAN OK IS FORECASTING THE DEVELOPMENT OF A FEW STRONG TORNADOES AND SIGNIFICANT DAMAGING WINDS OVER PARTS OF THE WESTERN GULF COAST REGION LATER TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT.

THE AREAS MOST LIKELY TO EXPERIENCE THIS ACTIVITY INCLUDE:
SOUTHEAST TEXAS
MUCH OF LOUISIANA
WESTERN MISSISSIPPI

OTHER SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS ARE POSSIBLE FROM CENTRAL TX TO WESTERN AL.

A VERY STRONG UPPER TROUGH NOW OVER NORTHERN MEXICO IS FORECAST TO TRACK EASTWARD INTO SOUTH TX BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON. STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS OVER THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO ARE TRANSPORTING MOIST/UNSTABLE AIR INTO SOUTHERN TX AND LA. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED THIS MORNING OVER SOUTH CENTRAL TX AND WILL CONTINUE EASTWARD TODAY. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST TO BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD THIS AFTERNOON AS IMPRESSIVE LOW LEVEL SHEAR PROFILES...SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY...AND A WELL DEFINED SURFACE LOW PRESSURE CENTER MOVE OVER THIS REGION. THIS WILL PROMOTE THE DEVELOPMENT OF SUPERCELL STORMS...CAPABLE OF SPAWNING STRONG TORNADOES. THE REGION OF GREATEST TORNADO THREAT THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT APPEARS TO BE NEAR AND JUST SOUTH OF THE TRACK OF THE SURFACE LOW...WHICH IS EXPECTED TO BE ROUGHLY ALONG AN AXIS FROM EAST OF SAN ANTONIO TEXAS EAST-NORTHEASTWARD TO NORTH CENTRAL LOUISIANA. THE TORNADO THREAT MAY PERSIST WELL INTO THE NIGHT AS STORMS TRACK EASTWARD INTO WESTERN MISSISSIPPI.

THIS IS POTENTIALLY A VERY DANGEROUS SITUATION. THOSE IN THE THREATENED AREA ARE URGED TO REVIEW SEVERE WEATHER SAFETY RULES AND TO LISTEN TO RADIO AND TELEVISION AND NOAA WEATHER RADIO FOR POSSIBLE WATCHES...WARNINGS AND STATEMENTS LATER TODAY.

JACK HALES
LEAD FORECASTER, STORM PREDICTION CENTER