SPC AC 231159      STORM PREDICTION CENTER...NWS/NCEP...NORMAN OK    DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK...REF AWIPS GRAPHIC PGWE46 KWNS.      VALID 231300Z - 241200Z    THERE IS A HIGH RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS SOUTHEAST TX...SRN/CNTRL    LA AND SWRN MS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 ENE PSX 50 N VCT 30    SW CLL 35 NNW POE 30 N HEZ 25 N MCB 40 WSW HUM.      SURROUNDING THIS AREA THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER    PORTIONS OF SCNTRL/SERN TX...NRN/CNTRL LA AND CNTRL/SRN MS TO THE    RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 SSW PSX 15 W SAT 35 W AUS 50 SE GGG 35 WSW    MLU 30 ENE MLU 35 S GLH 30 SE GLH 50 NNW MEI 25 NW MEI 10 WSW MEI    25 NE LUL 35 NW MOB 15 WSW MOB 40 ESE GPT 25 ESE BVE.    THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM    35 ENE CRP COT 35 NNW DRT 40 NNE JCT 10 SE SEP 20 NE GGG 35 SW UOX    20 NNE CBM 25 SSW TCL 40 SW SEM 10 SSW PNS.    GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM FHU 40 WSW SOW    15 S DRO 15 ESE LVS 25 N PVW END 15 NW JLN 35 WSW TBN 60 NNW POF    20 NNE CGI 50 SSE SDF 45 E RMG 20 N AYS 20 S CTY.      ***SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER EPISODE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AND    TONIGHT WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF STRONG TORNADOES***    ...SYNOPSIS...    VIGOROUS UPPER LOW MOVING ACROSS NRN MX WILL MOVE SLOWLY ENEWD INTO    THE SRN ROCKIES WHILE STRONG 80-100 KT MIDLEVEL JET MAX TRANSLATES    ACROSS SRN TX INTO THE LOWER MS VLY BY TONIGHT. AT THE SURFACE...    DEVELOPING WARM FRONT FROM SCNTRL-ECNTRL TX WILL LIFT NEWD INTO THE    LOWER MS VLY AS STRENGTHENING SURFACE LOW TRACKS FROM NEAR SAT NEWD    TO NRN LA-NRN MS BY 24/12 UTC.    ...WRN GULF COAST INTO LOWER MS VLY...    06 UTC ETA SOLUTION IS MORE IN LINE WITH LATEST THREE GFS/ETAKF    RUNS IN A MORE NWD TRACK OF SURFACE LOW AND PLACEMENT OF WARM FRONT    THIS AFTERNOON/NIGHT. THE WARM FRONT WILL LIFT INTO ECNTRL    TX...NRN/CNTRL LA AND CNTRL MS BY TONIGHT AS THE SURFACE LOW TRACKS    NEWD. GIVEN ANTICIPATED MORE NEGATIVE TILT TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH    AND STRONG DYNAMICAL FORCING...HIGH THETA-E AIR MASS POISED OVER    THE WRN GULF/S TX SHOULD HAVE NO PROBLEM ADVECTING NWD INTO THE    LOWER MS VLY THROUGH TONIGHT WITH MID 60S DEW POINTS AS FAR N AS    NRN LA-CNTRL MS.      NEW LDB PROFILER ALREADY SHOWS A STRONG SLY LOW LEVEL JET    DEVELOPING AND AS MIDLEVEL JET MAX APPROACHES THE REGION LATER THIS    AFTERNOON...850 MB JET AXIS OF 40-50 KTS WILL MOVE ACROSS ERN TX    INTO WRN LA. FORECAST HODOGRAPHS INDICATE THAT 0-1KM SRH VALUES    WILL EXCEED 500 M2/S2 FROM SERN/ECNTRL TX INTO CNTRL/SRN LA AND    SWRN MS.      IT APPEARS THAT THE STRONG-SEVERE TSTMS DEVELOPING ALONG THE I-35    CORRIDOR NEAR SAT-AUS REGION AND ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAINS WILL    CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY AND MOVE ENEWD INTO ECNTRL/SERN TX THIS    MORNING AND INTO CNTRL/SRN LA/SWRN MS THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING.    GIVEN MAGNITUDE OF LOW LEVEL SHEAR AND MOISTURE/INSTABILITY...    POTENTIAL WILL EXIST FOR STRONG TORNADOES...PARTICULARLY THIS    AFTERNOON/EVENING ALONG/JUST SOUTH OF SURFACE LOW TRACK /HIGH RISK    AREA/. LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE.      ADDITIONAL TSTMS ARE ALSO EXPECTED TO DEVELOP BY THIS EVENING    ACROSS THE HILL COUNTRY ALONG INCREASING FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING    BEHIND SURFACE LOW. STRONG LINEAR FORCING WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR    LINES OF STORMS WITH BOWS/LEWPS POSSIBLY GIVING WIND DAMAGE.    VERTICAL SHEAR/INSTABILITY WILL SUPPORT SUPERCELLS AS WELL WITH    VERY LARGE HAIL AND POSSIBLY TORNADOES. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD MOVE    QUICKLY ENEWD ACROSS ERN TX/LA AND INTO THE LOWER MS VLY OVERNIGHT    WITH A CONTINUED MAINLY DAMAGING WIND THREAT.      ..RACY.. 12/23/02       NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED FOR 1630Z