SPC AC 101632      STORM PREDICTION CENTER...NWS/NCEP...NORMAN OK    DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK...REF AWIPS GRAPHIC PGWE46 KWNS.      VALID 101630Z - 111200Z    THERE IS A HIGH RISK OF SVR TSTMS FOR MUCH OF KY...TN...NW AL...AND    NRN/WRN MS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 SSE TCL 35 W LUL 25 NE    HEZ 45 S GLH MEM 35 SSW PAH 25 SW EVV 30 WSW SDF 15 WNW LEX 35 WNW    JKL 25 S LOZ 30 W RMG 15 SSE TCL.      SURROUNDING THE HIGH RISK AREA THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FOR    SE IL...SRN INDIANA...NRN/ERN KY...NW GA...CENTRAL AL...SRN    MS...AND NE LA. THE MDT RISK AREA IS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM    45 ESE CHA 40 W ATL 15 ENE SEM 35 NNE MSY 25 NNW LFT 40 NNW ESF    40 WSW MEM CGI MVN 25 ENE MTO 35 NNE HUF 10 NE IND 50 NW LUK    20 ESE LUK 30 WNW HTS 20 NNW 5I3 50 NE TYS 45 ESE CHA.    THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM    30 W DAN 15 NW ABY 45 WSW BVE 45 SSE LCH 20 N POE 45 E SHV    40 ENE ELD 50 SW JBR 40 W MDH DEC 55 ESE MMO SBN 10 NE TOL    25 SW ERI BFD 25 SE AOO 30 W DAN.    GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM DAB 15 WNW PIE    ...CONT... 20 SE BPT 45 S SHV 40 WSW ELD 60 SW ARG 35 ENE UNO    30 SSW SPI MMO 15 NE JVL 25 N VOK 55 W RHI 15 N IWD ...CONT...    15 NE MSS GFL 20 NNE EEN 20 N HUL.    GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 NNE BLI    35 SSE SEA 40 ESE DLS 35 W BKE 40 S S80 15 N 27U 30 NNW WEY    30 E COD 30 ENE CPR 40 SSW BFF 40 WSW GLD 30 SE LBL 20 NW CDS    25 SSE TCC 35 ENE GUP 35 NW MLF 35 WSW BAM 60 SE LMT 25 N ACV.      -- SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER OUTBREAK EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AND    TONIGHT FROM SRN IL/INDIANA SWD ACROSS KY/TN TO NW AL AND NRN/WRN    MS --      12Z UPPER AIR ANALYSES INDICATE 100-150 KT WLY FLOW BETWEEN 500 AND    250 MB ACROSS THE SRN ROCKIES...WITH THE NOSE OF THE STRONG JET    EXTENDING ENEWD TO AR/MO. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SUGGESTS THAT AN    EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS LOCATED OVER THE SRN HIGH PLAINS AS OF    MID MORNING...AND THIS SPEED MAX WILL CONTINUE E/ENEWD TO THE MS/OH    VALLEYS BY TONIGHT. AT THE SURFACE...A DEEP LOW ACROSS WI WILL    DEVELOP ENEWD ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES TO SW ONTARIO AND WRN    QUEBEC BY TONIGHT...WHILE A TRAILING COLD FRONT MOVES E/SEWD ACROSS    THE MS/OH VALLEYS. RICH LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE AND DAYTIME HEATING IN    A BROAD WARM SECTOR FROM THE OH VALLEY TO THE GULF COAST WILL    COMBINE WITH THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT AND JET MAX TO SUPPORT    NUMEROUS SEVERE STORMS LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT ACROSS    THE OH/MS/TN VALLEYS.    ...KY/TN/NW AL/NRN AND CENTRAL MS...    IT APPEARS THE STRONGEST COMBINATION OF INSTABILITY /MLCAPE VALUES    OF 1500-3000 J/KG/ AND VERTICAL SHEAR /0-6 KM SHEAR MAGNITUDES OF    50-60 KT AND 0-3 KM SRH OF 200-400 M2/S2/ WILL BE PRESENT THIS    AFTERNOON AND INTO TONIGHT FROM KY/TN SSWD TO THE GULF COAST.    EXPECT STORMS TO FORM BY MIDDAY/EARLY AFTERNOON NEAR THE COLD FRONT    IN THE S/SE IL AREA...AND THEN SPREAD EWD ACROSS SRN INDIANA AND    WRN KY. CONVECTION WILL ALSO BUILD SWD ALONG THE FRONT BY LATE    THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING FROM WRN TN ACROSS NW MS TO NRN LA.    OTHER MORE ISOLATED STORMS COULD ALSO FORM THIS AFTERNOON IN THE    MOIST/WEAKLY CAPPED ENVIRONMENT ACROSS AL. GIVEN THE STRONG    SHEAR/INSTABILITY AND MOIST LOW LEVELS...STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF    PRODUCING A FEW STRONG TORNADOES...WIDESPREAD DAMAGING WINDS...AS    WELL AS LARGE HAIL.      A PUBLIC SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK WILL BE ISSUED AROUND 18Z.      ..THOMPSON.. 11/10/02       NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED FOR 2000Z