SPC AC 101232      STORM PREDICTION CENTER...NWS/NCEP...NORMAN OK    DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK...REF AWIPS GRAPHIC PGWE46 KWNS.      VALID 101300Z - 111200Z    THERE IS A HIGH RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER MUCH OF NRN AND CNTRL    KY...MIDDLE TN...NERN MS...NRN AL...AND EXTREME NWRN GA...TO THE    RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 SE CHA 20 NNE TCL 10 E CBM 35 NNE TUP 30    NNE MKL PAH 40 WSW EVV 10 WNW SDF 15 N LEX 30 NW JKL 15 SE LOZ 10    WNW TYS 10 SE CHA.      SURROUNDING THE HIGH RISK AREA THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS    OVER SRN IL...SRN IN...EXTREME SERN MO...WRN TN...NERN MS...CNTRL    AL...AND NWRN GA...TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 55 E CHA 25 SSE ANB    25 NNE MGM 35 E MEI 30 WNW MEI 25 SW TUP 20 S DYR CGI 20 N MDH 25    SSW BMG 35 W LUK 20 ESE LUK 30 WNW HTS 20 NNW 5I3 50 NE TYS 55 E    CHA.      SURROUNDING THE MDT AND HIGH RISK AREAS THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR    TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 N AND 10 ESE AUO 20 SW MOB 25    SE MSY 20 SSW HEZ 35 NNW GWO 15 ENE JBR 60 ESE VIH 25 NE SPI 45 SW    SBN TOL 25 WNW YNG 15 E YNG 15 NW MGW 30 N AND.    GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 ENE BLI    45 ENE 4LW 60 S TWF 15 N BYI 80 NNE BOI 30 SSW LWS 45 NW 63S    ...CONT... 60 ENE 63S WEY 50 SSE RWL 25 E ALS 65 S GNT 40 N P38    45 SSE NFL 40 ENE SCK 10 SW SFO.    GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 SE JAX 50 SSE CTY    ...CONT... 35 SE HUM 25 WNW ESF ELD 30 WSW JBR 35 ENE JEF 40 W SPI    35 SW RFD 40 NNW DBQ 25 WNW MKT 20 WNW BRD 35 NW IWD ...CONT...    15 NE MSS GFL 20 NNE EEN 20 N HUL.      ---SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER OUTBREAK IS POSSIBLE TODAY THROUGH    TONIGHT ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE OH AND TN VALLEYS---    ...SYNOPSIS...    EARLY MORNING WATER VAPOR LOOP SHOWED A STRONG SHORT WAVE TROUGH    LIFTING RAPIDLY NEWD ACROSS NRN KY/INDIANA. STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL    SLY FLOW IN RESPONSE TO THIS IMPULSE HAS RESULTED IN RAPID NWD    RETURN OF WARM AIR AND GULF MOISTURE WITH MID TO UPPER 60F SURFACE    DEW POINTS NOW SITUATED FROM THE LOWER MS VALLEY TO THE LOWER OH    VALLEY. FOLLOWING QUICKLY ON THE HEELS OF THE KY/OH SHORT WAVE IS    ANOTHER STRONG AND AMPLIFYING SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVING EWD FROM THE    CNTRL PLAINS. INTENSIFYING COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM    WILL PROGRESS EWD AND INTO THE MOIST AXIS TODAY RESULTING IN RAPID    TSTM DEVELOPMENT. COMBINATION OF POWERFUL MIDLEVEL JET MAX WITH 90-    100KT 500MB WINDS SPREADING EWD FROM THE PLAINS...AND STRONG    INSTABILITY DEVELOPING ACROSS THE MDT AND HIGH RISK AREAS...    SUGGESTS A HIGH PROBABILITY OF WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER.    ...OH/TN VALLEYS TO THE GULF COAST...    LATEST OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS DATA WAS SHOWING INSTABILITY AXIS FROM    THE LOWER MS VALLEY TO THE CONFLUENCE OF THE OH/MS RIVERS WITH    SMALL POCKET OF MLCAPE GREATER THAN 1000 J/KG SITUATED ACROSS SRN    IL. COLD FRONT WAS BECOMING BETTER DEFINED ACROSS MO AND EXPECT    LARGE SCALE ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH UPPER SHORT WAVE TROUGH AND    SURFACE FRONT WILL AID RENEWED TSTM DEVELOPMENT OVER PORTIONS OF IL    WITHIN THE NEXT FEW HOURS. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD EXPAND AND    INTENSIFY ESEWD INTO THE AFTERNOON AS INSTABILITY AND FORCING    STRENGTHEN. SURFACE-6KM SHEAR IN EXCESS OF 50KT...PRIMARILY    UNIDIRECTIONAL DEEP SWLY FLOW...AND LINEAR LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE    AHEAD OF THE FRONT ALL SUGGEST INITIALLY SPLITTING SUPERCELLS WITH    LARGE HAIL AND ISOLD TORNADOES PERHAPS CONGEALING INTO A PREFRONTAL    SQUALL LINE.      IN ADDITION...INCREASING ASCENT AHEAD OF THE TROUGH...WEAKLY CAPPED    AND STRONGLY UNSTABLE AIRMASS...AND SURFACE-1KM SRH VALUES IN    EXCESS OF 200 M2/S2 INDICATE THAT TORNADIC SUPERCELLS ARE ALSO    POSSIBLE AHEAD OF THE SQUALL LINE FROM WRN/NRN KY ACROSS MIDDLE TN    INTO NRN AL. DEGREE OF FCST INSTABILITY AND LOW LEVEL SHEAR OVER    THIS AREA FAVORS LONG-LIVED ROTATING STORMS WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR    STRONG TO VIOLENT TORNADOES. A NARROW CORRIDOR OF HIGHER LONG TRACK    TORNADO POTENTIAL MAY EXIST ACROSS NRN/CNTRL KY WHERE WEST-TO-EAST    LOW LEVEL OUTFLOW BOUNDARY WAS BECOMING SITUATED IN THE WAKE OF    OVERNIGHT CONVECTION. EVENTUALLY THE SURFACE FRONT/SQUALL LINE WILL    OVERTAKE THIS ACTIVITY WITH THE THREAT FOR WIDESPREAD DAMAGING    WINDS...HAIL...AND ISOLD TORNADOES SPREADING EWD FROM THE TN VALLEY    INTO THE SRN APPALACHIANS AND SWD TOWARD THE GULF COAST THROUGH THE    NIGHT.    ..CARBIN.. 11/10/02       NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED FOR 1630Z