SPC AC 311247      STORM PREDICTION CENTER...NWS/NCEP...NORMAN OK    DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK...REF AWIPS GRAPHIC PGWE46 KWNS.      VALID 311300Z - 011200Z    THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SVR TSTMS THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT    OVER EAST CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA...WESTERN AND NORTHERN    WISCONSIN...AND PORTIONS OF THE WESTERN UPPER PENINSULA OF    MICHIGAN. THE MDT RISK AREA IS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 SSW    MQT 35 NNW GRB VOK 35 NNE MCW 30 S RWF 30 SSE AXN 10 W BRD 45 ESE    DLH 25 ENE IWD 10 SSW MQT.      SURROUNDING THE MDT RISK AREA...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS    TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 SSW OSC 35 S MBL 10 NNE DBQ 20 ESE    ALO 40 SSW SPW 30 NW YKN 55 NE PIR 45 WNW JMS 60 N DVL.    GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 SW GLS 40 ENE CLL    60 WNW AUS 60 SSE DRT ...CONT... 65 S GBN 30 NW DRA 15 SSE EKO    20 E PUC 30 WSW DGW 40 SE BIL 15 S MSO 75 ENE 63S ...CONT...    20 NE TOL 45 S SBN 30 N MLI 15 NNW BIE 15 NW LHX 30 SSW CAO    35 NNE CDS 35 ENE MLC 20 NW POF 30 N CSV 20 SE DOV.    ...ERN DAKOTAS INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES...    WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A STRONG LEAD SHORT WAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY    MOVING THROUGH ERN ND...WITH AN EXTENSIVE CONVECTIVE COMPLEX FROM    CENTRAL ND INTO WRN/NWRN MN. ADDITIONAL CONVECTION IS ONGOING OVER    CENTRAL MN/WEST CENTRAL WI ON THE NOSE OF SWLY 55 KT LLJ WHICH    EXTENDS FROM NRN NEB INTO SWRN MN. AN UPSTREAM SHORT WAVE TROUGH    CURRENTLY OVER SERN BRITISH COLUMBIA WILL BE ANOTHER KEY PLAYER IN    THE SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL LATER IN THE PERIOD FROM ERN ND INTO    NWRN MN.      ONGOING CONVECTION OVER CENTRAL MN /FROM AROUND AXN TO BRD/...    ASSOCIATED WITH LEAD SHORT WAVE TROUGH OVER ERN ND/NWRN MN...WILL    TRACK EWD TODAY. SURFACE DEWPOINT VALUES REMAIN IN THE LOWER 60S-    LOWER 70S WITHIN THE MODERATE RISK AREA...AND WITH INCREASING SSWLY    LOW-LEVEL FLOW/MOISTURE ADVECTION LATER THIS MORNING FROM NRN    IA/SERN MN TO WRN WI...THESE VALUES WILL REMAIN CONSTANT OR RISE    SLIGHTLY. COMBINED WITH STEEP LAPSE RATES...THE AIR MASS FROM ERN    MN TO WRN U.P OF MI IS EXPECTED TO BECOME VERY UNSTABLE WITH MLCAPE    OF 3000-3500 J/KG. SURFACE WARM FRONT EXTENDING FROM CENTRAL MN TO    CENTRAL/SERN WI IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY OR LIFT    SLIGHTLY NWD. LARGE SCALE ASCENT WITH THE LEAD TROUGH AND    INCREASING LOW-LEVEL WAA OVER NRN WI/WRN U.P. OF MI WILL ALLOW    ONGOING ACTIVITY OVER ERN MN/WRN WI TO INCREASE IN INTENSITY AS IT    MOVES NEWD BY LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON. STORMS ARE ALSO    EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER PORTIONS OF CENTRAL/ERN MN BY MID-LATE    AFTERNOON AS A MID-LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH/SPEED MAX NOW OVER WRN    SD MOVES OVER THIS AREA.    DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR ORGANIZED STORMS/SUPERCELLS    AS SWLY LOW-LEVEL WINDS VEER TO WLY AT MID-LEVELS.    DAMAGING WINDS/LARGE HAIL WILL BE THE PRIMARY THREATS.    HOWEVER...A FEW TORNADOES WILL BE LIKELY FROM ERN MN INTO WRN WI    FROM A SURFACE LOW OVER SWRN MN EWD ALONG THE WARM FRONT...AS ETA    POINT FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE STRONG SFC-1 KM SHEAR AND    HELICITY. STORMS SHOULD SPREAD EWD INTO THE ERN U.P. OF MI AND NRN    LOWER MI THIS EVENING WITH DAMAGING WINDS/HAIL THE PRIMARY THREATS.       FURTHER NORTH...CONVECTION MOVING THROUGH NRN MN THIS MORNING IS    EXPECTED TO REINFORCE THE STABLE BOUNDARY LAYER IN PLACE...WHERE    SURFACE DEWPOINTS ARE PRESENTLY IN THE LOWER TO MID 50S NORTH OF A    LINE FROM DTL-DLH. THE TIMING OF THE UPSTREAM BRITISH COLUMBIA    SHORT WAVE TROUGH PER 06Z ETA SUGGESTS STORMS WILL DEVELOP ALONG A    COLD FRONT OVER CENTRAL ND THIS EVENING AND SPREAD EWD INTO ERN    ND/NERN SD AND WRN MN OVERNIGHT. INCREASING 700-250 MB WLY FLOW    /45 KT AT 700 MB-85 KT AT 500 MB/ WILL ENHANCE THE DEEP LAYER SHEAR    FOR ORGANIZED CONVECTION WITH STORMS IN THE FORM OF LINES/BOWS    RESULTING IN DAMAGING WINDS AS THE PRIMARY OVERNIGHT THREAT WITH    HAIL ALSO POSSIBLE.    ...SERN STATES...    AIR MASS FROM SRN AL INTO GA/SC AND PORTIONS OF FL IS EXPECTED TO    BECOME MODERATELY UNSTABLE AS MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES PER VIS IMAGERY    WILL ALLOW FOR SUFFICIENT DESTABILIZATION TO OCCUR BY AFTERNOON.    STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG LEFT OVER CONVECTIVE    BOUNDARIES FROM TUESDAY AND BENEATH COOL MID-LEVEL TEMPERATURES /-7    TO -8 C AT 500 MB/ ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK UPPER LOW OVER SRN GA.    WEAK DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL RESULT IN PULSE TYPE STORMS WITH WET-    MICROBURSTS/MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL THE PRIMARY THREATS.    HOWEVER...ANY SEVERE ACTIVITY SHOULD REMAIN TOO ISOLATED TO WARRANT    A SLIGHT RISK.      ..PETERS.. 07/31/02    NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED FOR 1630Z