SPC AC 161619
 
   STORM PREDICTION CENTER...NWS/NCEP...NORMAN OK
   DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK...REF AWIPS GRAPHIC PGWE46 KWNS.
 
   VALID 161630Z - 171200Z

   THERE IS A HIGH RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM
   30 E ELO 45 N EAU 20 NW LSE 30 SSE RST 15 ENE FSD 20 NE BKX
   65 W AXN 70 N GFK.

   THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM
   15 NNE CMX 10 NW JVL 20 SSW IRK 30 NNW EMP 30 ENE RSL 15 N EAR
   60 WSW YKN 35 SW BKX 45 ENE ABR 60 NNW DVL.

   THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM
   65 N ABI 25 NNE GAG PNC 15 SSW TUL 30 SW PRX 15 NW DAL 15 NNE MWL
   65 N ABI.

   GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 NW BLI 50 SW PDT
   95 SSE BNO 25 W LMT 45 SSW OTH.

   GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 SE TLH 35 SSE CSG
   30 NW BHM 25 S GLH 45 SE LFK 25 ENE CRP ...CONT... 45 ESE P07
   35 ESE BGS 15 NE CDS 30 NNW GAG 30 SSW GCK 25 NNW CAO 35 WSW RTN
   50 WNW ALS 10 SE GUC 20 NW 4FC 25 ENE FCL 10 W MHN 45 NNW PHP
   65 NNE ISN.
 
   INTENSE SQUALL LINE WITH DAMAGING WINDS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP LATER
   THIS AFTERNOON AHEAD OF STRONG SURFACE LOW AND COLD FRONT AND MOVE
   RAPIDLY ACROSS MN THROUGH EARLY TONIGHT.

   ...SYNOPSIS...
   INTENSE S/WV TROUGH LIFTING NEWD FROM CENTRAL ROCKIES TO UPPER MS
   VALLEY TONIGHT. ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW WELL IN ADVANCE OF TROUGH
   OVER NCENTRAL SD AT 16Z WILL BE IN NWRN MN BY 00Z. STG SLY FLOW OF
   MOIST UNSTABLE AIR EXTENDS FROM SRN PLAINS TO UPPER MS VALLEY IN
   ADVANCE OF SURFACE LOW AND DRY LINE. DRY LINE EXTENDS SWD FROM LOW
   THROUGH CENTRAL NEB TO WRN OK/TX BORDER.

   ...UPPER MS VALLEY...
   WARM SECTOR IN ADVANCE OF SURFACE LOW AND DRY LINE WELL CAPPED THIS
   MORNING. WITH THE VERY STEEP LAPSE RATES IN THE ELEVATED MIXED
   LAYER ABOVE THE CAP... LAPSE RATES OF 8-9C/KM... AIR MASS POTENTIAL
   REMAINS FOR RAPID SEVERE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT LATER THIS
   AFTERNOON. LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE PROVIDED BY DRY LINE/COLD FRONT
   AND STRONG MID LEVEL FORCING/COOLING EXPECTED TO BE SUFFICIENT TO
   RELEASE THE UNSTABLE AIR MASS.
 
   SQUALL LINE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP RAPIDLY VICINITY WRN MN BORDER BY
   MID/LATE AFTERNOON AND RACE NEWD. GIVEN CAPES TO 3000 J/KG MN SWD
   AND THE VERY STEEP LAPSE RATES COUPLED WITH STRONG UPPER DYNAMICS
   AS TROUGH EJECTS NEWD A POTENTIAL REMAINS FOR SIGNIFICANT DAMAGING
   WINDS ACROSS MN THRU EARLY NIGHTTIME HOURS.
 
   GIVEN THE NEAR MERIDIONAL FLOW AND MINIMAL LOW LEVEL TURNING...ONLY
   ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE LIKELY WITH BEST AREA AHEAD OF SURFACE LOW
   VICINITY WARM FRONT ACROSS NRN MN. DAMAGING WIND
   POTENTIAL SHOULD GRADUALLY LESSEN LATER TONIGHT AS SQUALL LINE
   MOVES INTO A MORE STABLE ENVIRONMENT ACROSS WI AND WRN U.P. OF MI.

   ...SRN PLAINS...
   SRN STREAM S/WV TROUGH EJECTING NEWD ACROSS TX/OK ATTM. BACK EDGE
   OF ASSOCIATED CLOUDINESS SHOULD CLEAR THE DRY LINE WRN OK/TX BORDER
   THIS AFTERNOON AND ALLOW RAPID DESTABILIZATION OF AIR MASS WITH
   CAPES CLIMBING TO ABOVE 3000 J/KG. LITTLE IN THE WAY OF UPPER
   SUPPORT APPARENT ON DRY LINE THIS AFTERNOON WITH UPPER TROUGH OVER
   HEAD...HOWEVER MID LEVEL COOLING WITH TROUGH COULD BE SUFFICIENT TO
   ALLOW CAP TO WEAKEN FOR A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP. ANY
   STORMS THAT CAN FORM WILL QUICKLY BECOME SEVERE AND VEERING
   HODOGRAPHS SUPPORT SUPERCELLS. THUS A CONDITIONAL THREAT REMAINS
   IN OUTLOOK THIS AREA FOR ISOLATED SEVERE LATE THIS
   AFTERNOON/EVENING.

   ...A PUBLIC SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK WILL BE ISSUED AROUND 18Z...

   ..HALES.. 04/16/02
  
   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED FOR 2000Z