MKC AC 250035
 
STORM PREDICTION CENTER...NWS/NCEP...NORMAN OK 
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK...REF AWIPS GRAPHIC PGWE46 KWBC.
 
VALID 250100Z - 251200Z 

THERE IS A HIGH RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER MUCH OF CENTRAL OH. THE 
HIGH RISK IS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 SSE MTC CLE 20 NW ZZV 
40 WSW UNI 45 SE LUK 30 SSE DAY 15 ESE FDY 25 E TOL 40 SSE MTC. 

THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS SURROUNDING THE HIGH RISK FROM 
EXTREME SERN LOWER MI...SWD INTO PORTIONS OF KY AND TN INTO EXTREME 
NERN MS AND NRN AL. THE MDT RISK IS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 
WSW ERI 30 NNW HLG 10 S PKB 20 NNE 5I3 20 WNW TYS 10 W CHA 
40 SSE MSL 35 S UOX UOX 35 WSW BNA 35 SSE SDF 25 SW LUK 40 SSW FDY 
15 E FNT 15 NE OSC. 

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 
30 NW ROC 25 E DUJ 20 WNW EKN 40 ESE 5I3 45 S TYS 20 ENE GAD 
20 S TCL 30 S JAN POE 35 SSE SHV 15 NNW GLH 30 S MKL 15 ESE CKV 
45 NE SDF 30 W FDY 15 ENE LAN 25 SSW HTL 35 NE TVC 10 NW ANJ. 

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 N PBG 20 NNW RUT 
35 SE GFL 20 E MSV 30 NE CXY MRB SHD 35 SE PSK 20 NNW CLT 
25 NE AGS 25 S SAV. 

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 WSW GLS 45 N HOU 
30 S SHV 40 S PBF 15 NNE MEM 10 SE EVV 10 ESE IND 25 WNW MIE 
45 N LAF 25 NE BMI 40 ESE MLI 30 S LNR 30 NW AUW 45 E IWD 
30 NE CMX. 

...OH/TN VALLEY... 
STRENGTHENING SPEED MAX IN THE BASE OF THE UPPER TROUGH WILL ROTATE 
NEWD ACROSS KY INTO SRN OH LATER TONIGHT. LARGE SCALE DIVERGENCE 
OVER PORTIONS OF THE OH VALLEY INTO ERN GREAT LAKES REGION SHOULD 
ENHANCE RAPID SFC DEEPENING AND PROVIDE LARGE SCALE FORCING 
NECESSARY TO MAINTAIN SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ALONG/AHEAD OF COLD 
FRONT. ACTIVITY APPEARS TO BE EVOLVING NATURALLY INTO LINEAR MCS 
WITH VERY STRONG STRAIGHT LINE DAMAGING WINDS EXPECTED AS THIS 
CONVECTION MOVES RAPIDLY EWD. HOWEVER...IMPRESSIVE VERTICAL SHEAR 
PROFILES AND THE AVAILABILITY OF UNUSED BOUNDARY LAYER INSTABILITY 
AHEAD OF THIS ACTIVITY SUGGEST EMBEDDED SUPERCELLS REMAIN LIKELY. 
ANY SIGNIFICANT TORNADOES THAT OCCUR TONIGHT WILL LIKELY BE 
ASSOCIATED WITH THESE EMBEDDED SUPERCELLS.
 
FARTHER SOUTH...DEEPENING AND STRENGTHENING WLY FLOW WILL ENHANCE 
EWD-MOVING SQUALL LINE ACROSS THE TN VALLEY TONIGHT. LATEST SFC 
ANALYSIS SUGGESTS HIGHER BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE IS RETURNING TO 
NRN GULF COAST TN VALLEY REGION AHEAD OF INTENSIFYING CONVECTION. 
AS THIS LINE PROPAGATES EWD...LINE ORIENTATION TO MEAN FLOW 
SUGGESTS BOW ECHOES MAY EVOLVE AND PRODUCE MORE ORGANIZED DAMAGING 
WINDS. SEVERE LEWP SHOULD MOVE EWD TO THE CREST OF THE 
APPALACHIANS BEFORE DECREASING IN INTENSITY. 

..DARROW.. 10/24/01 

NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED FOR 0600Z