MKC AC 242006
 
STORM PREDICTION CENTER...NWS/NCEP...NORMAN OK 
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK...REF AWIPS GRAPHIC PGWE46 KWBC.
 
VALID 242000Z - 251200Z 

THERE IS A HIGH RISK OF SVR TSTMS INTO EARLY THIS EVENING FOR 
EXTREME SOUTHEAST LOWER MICHIGAN..WESTERN OHIO..MOST OF INDIANA.. 
SOUTHEAST ILLINOIS..WESTERN AND CENTRAL KENTUCKY..AND EXTREME 
SOUTHEAST MISSOURI TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 ESE DTW 30 NNW 
MFD 25 W CMH 20 WSW LEX 20 E BWG 20 SW BWG 40 SE PAH 35 ESE POF 15 
WSW MDH 45 NNW LAF 10 ENE SBN 20 N ARB 25 ESE DTW.
 
SURROUNDING THE HIGH RISK...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FOR 
PART OF CENTRAL LOWER MICHIGAN..CENTRAL OHIO..PARTS OF EASTERN 
KENTUCKY..WEST AND MIDDLE TENNESSEE..AND SMALL PARTS OF SOUTHEAST 
MISSOURI AND NORTHEAST ARKANSAS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 ENE 
MBS 35 E MTC 15 ENE CLE 10 WNW HTS 40 SSW LOZ 35 NE HSV MEM 10 SE 
ARG 25 ESE BLV 35 SE CGX 15 ENE MBS. 

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 
25 NW ROC 20 E DUJ 15 NNW BKW 20 NNW TRI 20 ENE 0A8 15 NNE MEI 
35 NW JAN 40 N HOT 15 E BLV 30 SSE CGX 25 N MKE 30 NNW APN. 

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 SSE MOB 
30 ENE ESF 45 NNW HOT 35 SSW CGX 40 SW IMT 25 NNW MQT ...CONT... 
30 NNW PBG 15 SSE SSU 25 NE AGS 25 S SAV. 

...SYNOPSIS... 
RAPIDLY DEEPENING CYCLONE EXPECTED OVER THE GREAT LAKES AREA 
OVERNIGHT. ASSOCIATED STRONG COLD FRONT SHOULD EXTEND FROM WESTERN 
PENNSYLVANIA TO EAST TENNESSEE TO CENTRAL LOUISIANA BY 25/06Z. 

---WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER EPISODE INCLUDING TORNADOES AND 
SIGNIFICANT WIND DAMAGE IN PROGRESS--- 

...SRN IL/WRN KY INTO WRN OHIO/SERN MICHIGAN... 
STRONG SURFACE PRESSURE FALL/RISE COUPLET EVIDENT IN IN/IL AREA 
CURRENTLY ASSOCIATED WITH INITIAL STAGES OF EXPLOSIVE CYCLOGENESIS. 
LOW SHOULD TRACK RAPIDLY NORTHEAST ACROSS NORTHERN INDIANA AND 
LOWER MICHIGAN BY THIS EVENING. WEAK REMAINS OF THUNDERSTORM 
OUTFLOW BOUNDARY APPEARS TO BE NEAR KY/OH BORDER AND EXTENDS 
WESTWARD TO FORM TRIPLE POINT ALONG IL/IN BORDER WEST OF LAF. 
PRESENCE OF THIS WEAK BAROCLINIC ZONE WITH ASSOCIATED BACKED LOW 
LEVEL FLOW SUGGESTS THAT ISOLATED STRONG TORNADOES REMAIN POSSIBLE 
IN THE HIGH RISK AREA.
 
GIVEN EMBEDDED SUPERCELLS WITHIN SQUALL LINE AND ISOLATED 
SUPERCELLS FORMING AHEAD OF LINE IN INDIANA...EXPECT THREAT OF 
TORNADOES TO PERSIST INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS. WIDESPREAD AND 
POTENTIALLY SIGNIFICANT WIND DAMAGE IS ALSO LIKELY AS SQUALL LINE 
RACES EAST AND 500 MB FLOW INCREASES TO 100+ KNOTS. 

...ERN AR/TN/NRN MS/NWRN AL... 
SQUALL LINE SHOULD CONTINUE BUILDING SOUTH THIS AFTERNOON AND 
EVENING ALONG ADVANCING COLD FRONT. SINCE 70-90 KNOT 500 MB FLOW 
SPREADS INTO TENNESSEE THIS EVENING...EXPECT WIDESPREAD WIND DAMAGE 
WITH THESE THUNDERSTORMS. COVERAGE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL 
DROP OFF RAPIDLY FROM NORTH TO SOUTH OVER MS/AL WHERE QG-FORCING IS 
FORECAST TO BE WEAKER.
 
..CRAVEN.. 10/24/01

NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED FOR 0100Z