PUBLIC SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK
STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
430 AM CDT WED 24 OCT 2001

...OUTBREAK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS AND TORNADOES IS EXPECTED TODAY OVER PARTS OF THE OHIO VALLEY AND SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES REGION...

THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER IN NORMAN OK IS FORECASTING THE DEVELOPMENT OF NUMEROUS SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCING WIDESPREAD WIND DAMAGE AND A FEW STRONG TORNADOES OVER PARTS OF THE OHIO VALLEY AND SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES REGION TODAY AND THIS EVENING.

THE AREAS MOST LIKELY TO EXPERIENCE THIS ACTIVITY INCLUDE:
SOUTHEAST MISSOURI
SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL ILLINOIS
WESTERN AND NORTHERN KENTUCKY
ALL OF INDIANA
WESTERN OHIO
SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN

OTHER SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL ARE EXPECTED FROM WESTERN ARKANSAS AND NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI INTO WESTERN NEW YORK TODAY AND TONIGHT.
                                                                                             
A POWERFUL SURFACE COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO SWEEP ACROSS THE MID MISSISSIPPI AND OHIO VALLEYS TODAY. WARM...HUMID AIR AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL RESULT IN SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY FOR NUMEROUS THNDERSTORMS. VERY STRONG WINDS ALOFT AND APPROACH OF A VIGOROUS UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL PROVIDE A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL.

THE MOST INTENSE ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER SOUTHEAST MISSOURI/SOUTHERN ILLINOIS BY MIDDAY AND TRACK NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS MUCH OF INDIANA...KENTUCKY...WESTERN OHIO...AND SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THERE APPEARS TO BE A RATHER HIGH RISK OF SUPERCELL THUNDERSTORMS AND STRONG TO VIOLENT TORNADOES IN THIS REGION.

THIS IS POTENTIALLY A VERY DANGEROUS SITUATION. THOSE IN THE THREATENED AREA ARE URGED TO REVIEW SEVERE WEATHER SAFETY RULES AND TO LISTEN TO RADIO AND TELEVISION AND NOAA WEATHER RADIO FOR POSSIBLE WATCHES...WARNINGS AND STATEMENTS LATER TODAY.

JOHN HART
LEAD FORECASTER, STORM PREDICTION CENTER