MKC AC 120058   STORM PREDICTION CENTER...NWS/NCEP...NORMAN OK DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK...REF AWIPS GRAPHIC PGWE46 KWBC.   VALID 120100Z - 121200Z THERE IS A HIGH RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER CENTRAL AND SRN WI...TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 NW OSH 10 S OSH 30 NE JVL 25 W JVL 50 NW DBQ 25 SE RST 40 NW LSE 20 E EAU CWA 35 NW OSH. THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 NNW CGX 30 S RFD 30 S ALO 35 ESE FOD 15 NW MCW 15 SSW RST 10 SW EAU 30 ENE EAU 15 NE AUW 20 NNW GRB 15 SW MTW 30 NNW CGX. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 ESE FWA 30 ESE LAF 30 W BRL 35 N FNB 35 SE HSI 15 E MCK 15 SE LBF 10 NE BUB 30 S FSD 20 ENE MKT 55 SSW IWD 30 NW ESC 15 NNE TVC 35 WSW MBS 35 ESE FWA. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 SSE NEL 20 NNW ILG 20 SSW IPT IPT 25 W MSV 45 WSW ALB ALB 25 SW EEN 15 SE BDL 20 SE ISP. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 ESE PNS 45 WSW TOI 15 NW TOI 25 SSE CSG 20 NNW AYS 30 WNW JAX 60 SSE CTY. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 E TOL 30 SW MFD 40 ESE DAY 15 NE IRK 20 NNW STJ 40 W CNK 35 W HLC 10 ESE GLD 20 E COS 40 WNW COS 40 NW LAR 35 ESE BPI 30 SSW MLD 60 NE EKO 35 NNW OWY 65 N BOI 45 S MSO 50 SSE GTF 60 W MLS 35 SW REJ 30 NNW PHP 20 N BKX 65 NE MSP 30 NNW IWD. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM ACY 15 ESE HGR 25 NNW AOO 20 ESE BFD 10 E ITH 30 SW SLK 25 WNW EFK. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 E GPT 25 E LUL 30 ESE CBM 20 ENE GAD 40 SSE SPA 10 ENE CRE. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 NE MIA 45 WNW PBI AGR 20 NNW PIE. ...NRN MS VALLEY INTO THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES/NRN IL... CURRENT INDICATIONS SUGGEST SUSTAINED BOW ECHO/DERECHO WILL CONTINUE DEVELOPING ACROSS FAR WRN WI AND SERN MN OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. SURFACE ANALYSIS INDICATES WARM FRONT/INSTABILITY GRADIENT EXTENDING FROM FAR SERN MN SEWD INTO SERN WI/FAR NERN IL AND NRN IND ATTM. SBCAPES REMAIN EXTREME WITHIN WARM SECTOR...WITH VALUES OVER 4000 J/KG ACROSS SWRN WI AND ALMOST ALL OF IA. GIVEN THE INCREASING WSWLY FLOW OVER THE REGION...THIS AIRMASS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE FEEDING THE SEVERE MCS AS IT MOVES ESEWD ACROSS WI THROUGH THE EVENING. VERY STRONG SHEAR AND ENHANCED STORM-RELATIVE INFLOW DUE TO SELY SURFACE WINDS ON COOL SIDE OF FRONT SHOULD SUPPORT ORGANIZED CONVECTION FOR SEVERAL MORE HOURS...AND ENHANCE THE THREAT FOR WIDESPREAD STRONG/DAMAGING WINDS. PRONOUNCED LOW LEVEL SHEAR AND SR-HELICITIES WILL ALSO MAINTAIN A THREAT OF SUPERCELLS AND ISOLATED TORNADOES ALONG LEADING EDGE OF THE DERECHO. SRN EDGE OF THIS SYSTEM WILL LIKELY PERSIST INTO NRN IL...THOUGH COOL/STABLE AIR OVER LAKE MI AND LOWER MI POSES MORE UNCERTAINTY AS TO WHETHER OR NOT SEVERE CONVECTION CAN MAKE IT INTO LOWER MI LATER TONIGHT. ATTM EXPECT MCS WILL WEAKEN AS IT MOVES INTO LOWER MI...AND LIMIT THE THREAT OF WIDESPREAD SEVERE. ...CENTRAL PLAINS INTO IA... SURFACE COLD FRONT IS WELL DEFINED ATTM TRAILING SWWD FROM LOW CENTER OVER SWRN MN ACROSS NWRN IA AND INTO SWRN NEB/NERN CO. THOUGH EXTREME INSTABILITY IS PLACE...PRONOUNCED CAP IS INHIBITING CONVECTION ALONG THE FRONT. THE EXCEPTION IS INTO CENTRAL NEB WHERE STRONG HEATING AND CONVERGENCE WAS SUFFICIENT FOR DEEP CONVECTION. LATEST RUC HANDLED THIS DEVELOPMENT VERY WELL...AND SUGGESTS CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE DEVELOPING INTO ERN NEB THROUGH THE EVENING AS STRONG SLY LLJ DEVELOPS ACROSS KS. COMBINATION OF FRONT AND SWD MOVING OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM NRN MS VALLEY MCS SHOULD PROVIDE SUFFICIENT CONVERGENCE FOR DEVELOPMENT INTO IA AS WELL. ACTIVITY OVER THIS REGION WILL LIKELY BECOME ELEVATED AS IT MOVES NORTH OF SURFACE FRONT...AND SHOULD POSE PRIMARY THREAT OF VERY LARGE HAIL AND ISOLATED DAMAGING WINDS. ...GULF COAST... TROPICAL SYSTEM HAS BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY THIS AFTERNOON...AND IS SUPPORTING VERY STRONG LOW LEVEL SHEAR ACROSS THE FL PANHANDLE/SWRN AL/SRN GA. SURFACE LOW IS ALSO DEEPENING THIS EVENING OVER S-CENTRAL AL. THIS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE SUPPORTING ISOLATED TORNADOES AS STORMS SHIFT EWD ACROSS THIS REGION OVERNIGHT. ...WRN NEW ENGLAND INTO THE NRN MID ATLANTIC... AIR MASS REMAINS MODERATELY UNSTABLE JUST AHEAD OF CONVECTION SHIFTING ESEWD ACROSS THIS AREA..WITH TEMPERATURES WELL INTO THE 70S AHEAD OF COLD FRONT MOVING SWD INTO NRN PA/SERN NY. EXPECT LOSS OF HEATING AFTER SUNSET WILL WEAKEN OVERALL CONVECTION OVER THE REGION ...THOUGH THE THREAT OF ISOLATED WIND/HAIL WILL PERSIST FOR ANOTHER FEW HOURS. /REFERENCE SWOMCD 1129 ISSUED FOR THIS AREA AT 0020Z./ ..EVANS.. 06/12/01