MKC AC 062015
 
STORM PREDICTION CENTER...NWS/NCEP...NORMAN OK 
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK...REF AWIPS GRAPHIC PGWE46 KWBC.
 
VALID 062000Z - 071200Z 

THERE IS A HIGH RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PORTIONS OF THE TEXAS 
PANHANDLE...WRN OKLAHOMA...MUCH OF KANSAS AND EXTREME SOUTHERN 
NEBRASKA FOR LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE 
FROM 45 ENE PVW 65 SSW LBL 30 N LBL 25 N GCK 35 SW HLC 30 N HLC HSI 
10 WSW LNK 10 WNW FNB 10 E TOP 50 W CNU PNC 35 S END 30 NNW FSI 
10 WSW LTS 45 ENE PVW. 

THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM PVW 
55 E DHT 30 NE EHA 20 ENE GLD 25 WSW MCK 10 N EAR 15 NNE OMA 
20 ENE DSM 10 ESE OTM 15 SE IRK 25 S SZL JLN 50 ENE OKC 15 E FSI 
55 ESE LBB PVW. 

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 
45 SSW MAF 45 SSE CVS 15 ESE CAO 25 NE LAA AKO 40 W SNY 25 NW BFF 
35 WNW VTN 9V9 BKX 10 NE MKT LSE 15 SSE GRR CLE 15 SW HLG 
15 SSE PKB 35 NW HTS 10 NNW LUK HUF 35 N ALN 45 S UIN 20 WSW VIH 
FSM 35 E DAL 45 WNW TPL 40 W JCT 45 SSW MAF. 

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 SE ORF ROA LEX 
MVN 55 ESE VIH 50 SSE HRO 10 WSW TYR AUS 50 SSE DRT ...CONT... 
45 SSW P07 PGA SLC BZN LWT 65 WNW GGW 45 WNW DVL 10 SSW RRT 
...CONT... 30 SW BUF 10 SW JFK. 

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 ENE MRY 35 SE UKI 
40 E EKA 30 NW MHS 35 NE MHS 40 WSW SVE 45 SSW TVL 35 SW BIH 
55 SE FAT 35 NNE PRB 40 ENE MRY. 

...MAJOR SEVERE WEATHER OUTBREAK EXPECTED FOR PORTIONS OF THE 
CENTRAL/SRN PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING... 

...SYNOPSIS... 
INTENSE UPPER TROUGH WILL BECOME STRONGLY NEGATIVELY TILTED AS IT 
EJECTS RAPIDLY NEWD FROM NM NEWD INTO CENTRAL PLAINS OVERNIGHT. 
TRAILING COLD FRONT/DRYLINE WILL SURGE RAPIDLY EWD FROM CO/NM EWD 
AND EXTEND FROM ERN SRN DAKOTA SWD INTO SRN/CENTRAL TX BY THE END 
OF THE PERIOD. A WARM FRONT ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS/MID MS AND 
OHIO VALLEYS WILL MOVE NWD INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST/GREAT LAKES AREA 
OVERNIGHT. 

...SRN/CENTRAL PLAINS... 
AREA OF LARGE SURFACE PRESSURE FALLS ACROSS ERN CO/ERN NM ARE 
MOVING RAPIDLY ENEWD WITH STRONG RISES LOCATED IN WRN NM. THESE 
FALLS ARE INDICATIVE OF THE STRONG LIFTING THAT IS SPREADING 
RAPIDLY NEWD...AHEAD OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH...INTO THE WRN 
PORTIONS OF THE SRN/CENTRAL PLAINS. BOTH THE 18Z AMA AND DDC 
SOUNDINGS SHOW THE BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE IS DEEPER THAN FORECAST 
BY THE MODEL SOUNDINGS AND IS RESULTING IN MUCAPE OF AROUND 3000 
J/KG. A THICK VEIL OF MID/HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS HAVE COVERED MUCH OF 
THE SRN/CENTRAL PLAINS THIS MORNING...BUT THINNING CLOUDS ACROSS 
ERN NM/WRN TX WILL SPREAD EWD AND RESULT IN WARMING TEMPERATURES 
AND FURTHER DESTABILIZATION.
 
DRYLINE WILL SURGE EWD OUT OF CO/NM BY LATE AFTERNOON. STRONG 
FORCING AND LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE WILL BE SUFFICIENT TO WEAKEN CAP 
FOR WIDESPREAD SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP FROM ERN NM/CO EWD 
INTO WRN KS AND TX PANHANDLE WITHIN THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. 
ALTHOUGH ISOLATED STORMS MAY DEVELOP AHEAD OF DRYLINE...STRONG 
LINEAR FORCING AND ORIENTATION OF PRESSURE FALLS SUGGEST A SQUALL 
LINE MAY BE THE PRINCIPAL MODE OF CONVECTION. JET WINDS IN EXCESS 
OF 100 KT WERE OBSERVED ON THE TUCUMARI AND WIND SANDS PROFILERS 
NEAR 5 KM AT 19Z AND THESE WINDS WILL SHIFT NEWD INTO THE CENTRAL 
PLAINS THIS EVENING. GIVEN THE VERY STRONG SHEAR AND 
STRONG/MODERATE INSTABILITY...EMBEDDED BOWS AND SUPERCELLS WOULD BE 
LIKELY WITHIN THE LINE WITH A THREAT OF SIGNIFICANT WIND DAMAGE AND 
TORNADOES. STORMS THAT DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE LINE WILL ALSO HAVE A 
HIGH LIKELIHOOD OF TORNADOES...VERY DAMAGING WINDS AND VERY LARGE 
HAIL. THE STRONG DYNAMICS AND PRESSURE FALLS WILL RESULT IN BACKING 
WINDS...WHICH WILL INCREASE THE LOW LEVEL SHEAR AND THREAT FOR 
STRONG TORNADOES...ESPECIALLY FROM THE TX PANHANDLE/NWRN OK NEWD 
INTO KS.
 
OTHER STORMS HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS CENTRAL/NRN KS IN ZONE OF MID 
LEVEL WARM ADVECTION. THESE STORMS HAVE STRENGTHENED AND BECOME 
SURFACE BASED WITH AN INCREASED CHANCE OF TORNADOES. TORNADOES ARE 
MORE LIKELY NEAR THE WARM FRONT...WHICH STRETCHED FROM NEAR THE 
KS/NEB BORDER EWD INTO EXTREME NRN MO. SEE TORNADO WATCH #96 FOR 
MORE INFORMATION. 

...NEB/IA... 
WARM FRONT WILL BE LIFTING RAPIDLY NWD DURING THE EVENING AS 
SURFACE LOW LIFTS NEWD FROM CO INTO THE NEB/SD. LATEST VAD WIND 
PROFILES INDICATE THE LOW LEVEL JET IS RAPIDLY INCREASING WITH A 50 
KT WIND AT 850 MB INDICATED AT ICT AND 40 KT AT GID. THE JET IS 
FORECAST TO INCREASE TO OVER 70 KT AND STRONG LIFTING NORTH OF THE 
FRONT WILL RESULT IN ELEVATED STORMS TO DEVELOP/MOVE NWD ACROSS NEB 
AND EVENTUALLY PORTIONS OF SD/IA THIS EVENING. GIVEN MODERATE 
INSTABILITY ABOVE THE BOUNDARY LAYER AND STRONG SHEAR...LARGE HAIL 
IS EXPECTED TO BE THE MAIN THREAT. TORNADOES WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE 
WITH STORMS THAT INTERACT WITH THE NWD MOVING WARM FRONT ACROSS NEB 
AND IA THIS EVENING. 

...IND/IL/OH/WRN MI/SRN WI... 
STRONG/SEVERE STORMS CONTINUE TO MOVE ESEWD INTO INDIANA IN AREA OF 
WARM ADVECTION. SUFFICIENT DEEP LAYERED SHEAR...MUCAPE OF AROUND 
1500 J/KG AND WARM ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE A THREAT OF SEVERE 
STORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF IND AND OH INTO THE EVENING HOURS. 
STRONG/SEVERE STORMS SHOULD ALSO INITIATE IN NRN IL/IND/SRN WI AND 
SRN MI LATER TONIGHT AS STRONG LOW LEVEL JET IMPINGES ON WARM 
FRONT.
 
..IMY.. 04/06/01

NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED FOR 0100Z