MKC AC 061647
 
STORM PREDICTION CENTER...NWS/NCEP...NORMAN OK 
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK...REF AWIPS GRAPHIC PGWE46 KWBC.
 
VALID 061630Z - 071200Z 

THERE IS A HIGH RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PARTS OF WRN OK...MUCH OF 
KS...AND EXTREME SRN NEB TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 
20 NE CDS 35 SSW GAG 30 ENE LBL 20 N GCK 50 E GLD 20 SE MCK 
20 S HSI 20 SSW LNK 15 W FNB TOP 45 WSW CNU PNC 35 NW OKC 
25 NW FSI 10 WSW LTS 20 NE CDS. 

THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM CDS 
50 W GAG 10 NW LBL 10 NE GLD 20 SSE IML 10 N EAR 15 NNE OMA 
20 ENE DSM 10 ESE OTM 15 SE IRK 15 SSW SZL JLN 50 NW MLC 
30 ESE FSI 45 W SPS CDS. 

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 
55 E FST 25 W LBB 10 N DHT 35 NNE LAA AKO 40 W SNY 25 NW BFF 
35 WNW VTN 9V9 BKX 10 NE MKT LSE 15 SSE GRR CLE 15 SW HLG 
15 SSE PKB 35 NW HTS 10 NNW LUK HUF 35 N ALN 45 S UIN 20 WSW VIH 
FSM 35 E DAL 45 WNW TPL 30 NW JCT 55 E FST. 

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 SE ORF ROA LEX 
MVN 55 ESE VIH 50 SSE HRO 10 WSW TYR AUS 50 SSE DRT ...CONT... 
65 S MRF 45 ESE GDP 10 ENE ROW 10 ESE 4CR 40 ENE TCS 35 S DMN 
...CONT... 75 SSW GBN 40 W PRC SLC BZN LWT SDY 25 S GFK DLH 
...CONT... 30 SW BUF 10 SW JFK. 

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 ENE MRY 35 SE UKI 
40 E EKA 30 NW MHS 35 NE MHS 40 WSW SVE 45 SSW TVL 35 SW BIH 
55 SE FAT 35 NNE PRB 40 ENE MRY. 

...PUBLIC SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK WILL BE ISSUED AROUND 17Z...
 
VIGOROUS UPPER SHORT WAVE TROUGH EVIDENT IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY 
OVER AZ IS BEGINNING TO ACCELERATE NEWD IN RESPONSE TO UPSTREAM 
TROUGH DIGGING SSEWD ALONG THE NRN PACIFIC COAST. THE AZ SYSTEM IS 
FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS THE SRN ROCKIES TOWARD THE HIGH PLAINS 
DURING THE AFTERNOON...AND CONTINUE NEWD TOWARD THE NRN PLAINS BY 
THE END OF THE PERIOD. SURFACE LOW DEVELOPING OVER ERN CO IS 
FORECAST STRONGLY DEEPEN AS IT MOVES NEWD THROUGH TONIGHT... 
REACHING NERN CO LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND ERN SD LATE TONIGHT. 
PACIFIC COLD FRONT EXTENDING SWWD FROM THE LOW WILL SURGE EWD THIS 
AFTERNOON AND OVERTAKE DRY LINE EXTENDING SWD ACROSS THE SRN HIGH 
PLAINS. THE COLD FRONT WILL ACCELERATE NEWD TONIGHT ACROSS THE 
CENTRAL PLAINS IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE STRONG MID LEVEL JET 
STREAK...REACHING A CENTRAL IA/WRN MO/SERN OK/CENTRAL TX LINE BY 
THE END OF THE PERIOD. THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR A SIGNIFICANT 
OUTBREAK OF SEVERE WEATHER ACROSS PARTS OF THE SRN HIGH 
PLAINS/CENTRAL PLAINS AREA. 

...OK/KS/SRN NEB... 
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS REMAINING ACROSS THE CENTRAL/SRN PLAINS WITH 
12Z SOUNDINGS SHOWING DEEPER MOIST LAYER THAN INDICATED BY MODEL 
FORECASTS. SURFACE DEW POINTS IN THE LOW/MID 60S COUPLED WITH 
STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES OF 7-8 C/KM ARE CONTRIBUTING TO 
SUBSTANTIAL INSTABILITY WITH SBCAPE OF 2000-3000 J/KG. EXTENSIVE 
CLOUD COVER OVER MUCH OF THE PLAINS IS INHIBITING DIURNAL HEATING 
AND MAY LIMIT MAGNITUDE OF DESTABILIZATION THIS AFTERNOON...BUT 
SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY IS EXPECTED TO SUPPORT STRONG/SEVERE 
CONVECTION LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT. LOW LEVEL 
CONVERGENCE IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE NEAR THE DEEPENING LOW OVER 
NERN CO...EXTENDING SWD ALONG THE ADVANCING COLD FRONT AND EWD 
ALONG THE WARM FRONT OVER NRN KS/SRN NEB/EXTREME NRN MO.
 
LARGE SCALE ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER TROUGH WILL OVER 
SPREAD THE WRN EDGE OF THE WARM SECTOR THIS AFTERNOON AND ENHANCE 
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT FROM EXTREME ERN CO/WRN KS SWD INTO PARTS 
OF THE TX PANHANDLE. DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL BECOME EXTREMELY STRONG 
AS 100 KT MID LEVEL JET STREAK MOVES RAPIDLY NEWD ACROSS WRN PARTS 
OF TX IN CLOSE PROXIMITY TO 60 KT SLY LOW LEVEL JET OVER OK.
 
VEERING WIND PROFILES IN THE LOWEST 2-3 KM WILL ALSO CONTRIBUTE TO 
STRONG HELICITY...WITH OVERALL KINEMATIC ENVIRONMENT FAVORABLE FOR 
SUPERCELL DEVELOPMENT. VERY LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WIND GUSTS...AND 
POSSIBLY A FEW STRONG TORNADOES WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE THIS 
AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING OVER PARTS OF WRN KS INTO WRN TX AND 
OK. OTHER SEVERE STORMS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE ALONG/NORTH OF THE WARM 
FRONT OVER EXTREME NRN KS/SRN NEB AND POSSIBLY SRN IA AREA WHERE 
WARM ADVECTION WILL AID THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. STRENGTH OF LOW 
LEVEL WIND SHEAR/HELICITY SUGGESTS POTENTIAL FOR TORNADOES.
 
DURING THE EVENING...CONVERGENCE ALONG THE COLD FRONT SUGGESTS 
INCREASING POTENTIAL FOR SQUALL LINE DEVELOPMENT. STRENGTH OF THE 
DEEP LAYER WIND FIELDS INDICATE POTENTIAL FOR EMBEDDED BOW ECHOES 
ALONG THE LINE...WITH DAMAGING WIND GUSTS BECOMING THE PRIMARY 
THREAT AS CELLS MOVE RAPIDLY NEWD. WIDESPREAD WIND DAMAGE WILL BE 
POSSIBLE AS THE SQUALL LINE SURGES NEWD ACROSS MUCH OF NRN OK AND 
KS TOWARD THE LOWER MO VALLEY. THE MOST SEVERE ACTIVITY MAY 
CONTINUE THROUGH AROUND 04-06Z...WITH A SLOW WEAKENING TREND 
ANTICIPATED THEREAFTER. 

...MIDDLE MS VALLEY EWD INTO OH... 
STRONG CONVECTION MOVING FROM IA INTO NRN IL IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP 
EWD THIS AFTERNOON AS THINNING OF CLOUDS PERMITS ADDITIONAL 
DESTABILIZATION TO OCCUR. STRONG MAINLY WLY FLOW ALOFT SUGGESTS 
POSSIBILITY OF A FEW BOW ECHOES DEVELOPING...WITH THREAT FOR 
DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL SPREADING EWD INTO THE EVENING HOURS.
 
..WEISS.. 04/06/01

NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED FOR 2000Z