MKC AC 060608
 
STORM PREDICTION CENTER...NWS/NCEP...NORMAN OK 
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK...REF AWIPS GRAPHIC PGWE46 KWBC.
 
VALID 061200Z - 071200Z 

THERE IS A HIGH RISK OF SVR TSTMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 
PORTIONS OF THE TX AND OK PANHANDLES THROUGH WRN AND CNTRL KS TO 
THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 NNE CNK 20 ESE MHK 40 ENE ICT 10 S END 
20 WNW CSM 65 WSW GAG 15 NW LBL 45 NW GCK 40 SSW MCK 40 S EAR 35 
NNE CNK.
 
SURROUNDING THE HIGH RISK THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE 
RIGHT OF A LINE FROM LTS 40 NE PVW 15 E DHT 40 ENE LAA 50 SE AIA 
ANW 25 NW SUX 50 ENE OMA FLV 40 NW BVO 20 NW OKC LTS. 

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 S
SJT 35 N MAF 35 WSW DHT 30 SE LIC 50 N CYS 35 WSW RAP 25 W ATY 40
E VOK 30 N DTW 30 SSE FDY 50 W LUK 25 W COU 25 NW FYV PRX 25 WSW 
ACT 30 S SJT. 

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 SSE WAL 30 SSW BLF
55 SSE SDF 30 SW PAH 30 SSE TXK 40 ENE CLL 40 NW LRD...CONT... 90 
SSE MRF 30 E GDP 25 N ALM 55 N SVC 35 NNW TUS 65 SW GBN 30 ESE PRB
20 NW UKI 15 N 4BK 35 SE PDX 25 ENE BYI 35 SE P24 85 NW CMX 
...CONT... 40 W ART ALB BID.
 
...CNTRL PLAINS...
 
AN OUTBREAK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS AND TORNADOES IS EXPECTED 
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SRN AND CNTRL PLAINS FRIDAY AFTERNOON 
AND EVENING.
 
VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE TROUGH NOW OVER THE SWRN U.S. ACCOMPANIED BY 100 
KT MID LEVEL JET WILL EJECT NEGATIVELY TILTED THROUGH THE SRN AND 
CNTRL PLAINS FRIDAY AFTERNOON. WARM FRONT EXTENDS FROM NERN CO EWD 
THROUGH CNTRL KS AND NEWD INTO THE MID MS VALLEY. DRYLINE EXTENDS 
SWD FROM SWRN KS THROUGH W TX AND SHOULD SERVE AS A FOCUS FOR 
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT FRIDAY.
 
PRIMARY COMPLICATING FACTOR THIS FORECAST PERIOD CONTINUES TO BE 
THE WAY MODELS ARE DRYING OUT BOUNDARY LAYER ACROSS MUCH OF TX AND 
SUBSEQUENTLY SPREADING IT NWWD INTO OK. EVENING SOUNDING DATA 
SUGGEST THERE IS SIGNIFICANT DRY AIR ABOVE RELATIVELY SHALLOW 
BOUNDARY LAYER ACROSS SERN TX. VISIBLE IMAGERY THIS EVENING ALSO 
SHOWED AN AREA OF CLEARING MOVING RAPIDLY NWWD THROUGH CNTRL TX. 
THIS AIR POSSIBLY ORIGINATED DUE TO SUBSIDENCE UNDERNEATH UPPER 
RIDGE ACROSS WRN GULF. OBSERVATIONAL DATA SUGGEST MODELS MAY TOO 
AGGRESSIVE WITH THIS EVOLUTION. 00Z DRT SOUNDING SHOWED BOUNDARY 
LAYER DID NOT DRY OUT AS MUCH AS FORECAST. CURRENT THINKING IS THAT 
AXIS OF RICH MOISTURE WILL LIKELY SPREAD NWD THROUGH W TX AND INTO 
WRN KS AHEAD OF THE DRYLINE TONIGHT. IF MORNING SOUNDING DATA SHOW 
THAT THE DEPTH OF THE BOUNDARY LAYER HAS DECREASED SIGNIFICANTLY 
FURTHER E...PORTIONS OF TX/OK MAY BE TAKEN OUT OF RISK AREAS.
 
WARM FRONT ACROSS KS SHOULD LIFT NWD FRIDAY AS SURFACE LOW DEEPENS 
OVER THE CNTRL HIGH PLAINS. ATMOSPHERE IS EXPECTED TO DESTABILIZE 
IN WARM SECTOR ACROSS MUCH OF KS SWWD THROUGH W TX AND NWRN OK 
AHEAD OF DRYLINE. STEEP LAPSE RATES AND SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE 
MID TO UPPER 60S SHOULD SUPPORT MLCAPES FROM 2500 TO 3000 J/KG. 
CIRRUS CANOPY MAY LIMIT HEATING EARLY IN PERIOD. HOWEVER...DRY SLOT 
ASSOCIATED WITH EJECTING SHORTWAVE SHOULD RESULT IN SOME SURFACE 
HEATING ACROSS PORTIONS OF WRN KS SWD THROUGH WRN OK AND WRN TX 
DURING THE AFTERNOON. STORMS MAY BE ONGOING EARLY IN THE PERIOD 
ALONG AND N OF WARM FRONT ACROSS PORTIONS OF NEB WITH LARGE HAIL 
THE PRIMARY THREAT.
 
OTHER STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG DRYLINE FROM WRN KS SWD 
THROUGH THE TX/OK PANHANDLES DURING THE AFTERNOON AS LARGE SCALE 
ASCENT WEAKENS CAP AND STRONG WIND FIELDS ACCOMPANYING SHORTWAVE 
TROUGH CONTRIBUTE TO INCREASING DRYLINE CONVERGENCE. DEEP LAYER 
SHEAR IN EXCESS OF 70 KT AND STORM RELATIVE HELICITIES FROM 300 TO 
400 M2/S2 WILL SUPPORT TORNADIC SUPERCELLS FROM PORTIONS OF THE 
TX/OK PANHANDLES INTO NWRN OK THROUGH WRN/CNTRL KS. LARGE HAIL WILL 
ALSO BE LIKELY. GIVEN STRENGTH OF FLOW BETWEEN 2 AND 5 KM STORMS 
WILL MOVE RAPIDLY NEWD AROUND 50 KT AFTER INITIATION. OVERNIGHT 
ACTIVITY MAY EVOLVE INTO A SQUALL LINE WITH DAMAGING WIND LIKELY. 
STRENGTH OF WIND AND VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES ALONG WITH ANTICIPATED 
MODERATE TO STRONG INSTABILITY SUGGEST POTENTIAL FOR STRONG... 
DAMAGING TORNADOES IN AND AROUND HIGH RISK AREA.
 
..DIAL.. 04/06/01 

NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED FOR 1300Z