SPC DAY-1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK

05 Jun 1999 - 15:59:16 UTC 

ZCZC MKCSWODY1 000
ACUS1 KMKC 051559
MKC AC 051559

CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK...REF AFOS NMCGPH94O.

VALID 051630Z - 061200Z

THERE IS A HIGH RISK OF SVR TSTMS LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT
ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN NEB...SOUTHERN AND EASTERN SD...
SOUTHWESTERN MN AND WESTERN IA. THIS AREA IS TO THE RIGHT OF A
LINE FROM 20 NNE MCK 30 SW MHN 60 E CDR 35 SSE PHP 45 WNW HON 35 S
AXN 20 NW MKT 30 W MCW 35 SSE OMA 30 SE HSI 20 NNE MCK.

THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 ENE
LBL 20 WSW P28 40 SSW ICT 20 NW STJ 15 NE ALO 25 W LSE 40 E MSP 40
ENE STC 20 NNW AXN 65 SSW FAR 40 NNE PIR 15 NNE PHP 30 ENE CDR 50
WSW MHN MCK 10 ENE LBL.

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 E
DTW 35 ESE AZO 30 ESE RFD 25 NE MLI 30 NNW IRK 10 NNE OJC 25 NW MWL
30 WSW JCT 75 NNW DRT 65 SSE MAF 50 NNE AMA 55 NNW GCK 30 SW MCK 50
E SNY 30 N BFF 60 ENE 4DG 35 E 81V 40 SW BIS 45 ENE INL.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 SE DTW 30 NE FWA
20 NNE BMI 10 S UIN 30 S SZL 30 WSW JLN 20 SSW FTW 65 WSW COT
...CONT... 25 S P07 25 WNW PVW 35 ENE DHT 55 E 4LJ 15 SW IML 50 E
FCL 40 W PUB 30 NNW SAF 30 E GCN 35 S TPH 20 NW NFL 70 ESE 4LW 45
WSW BKE 10 ENE PUW 60 N FCA.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 NW PBG 40 WSW SLK
15 E SYR 50 SE BUF ERI.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 SE HUM 45 WSW CBM
20 SSW BWG 35 NNW LOZ 45 NW HSS 35 NNW AGS 35 ESE SAV.

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM FORECAST DISCUSSION...

PARAMETERS WILL BE IN PLACE TO SUPPORT AN OUTBREAK OF SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS WITH POTENTIAL FOR LARGE/DAMAGING TORNADOES IN THE
HIGH RISK AREA.  

A PUBLIC SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK /MKCPWOMKC/ WILL BE ISSUED BY
1700Z.
 
ADDITIONALLY...PROVIDED THE CLOUD COVER NOW MOVING NEWD INTO KS
THINS SUFFICIENTLY TO ALLOW STRONG HEATING...TORNADIC SUPERCELLS
ARE LIKELY WITH POSSIBLY LARGE DAMAGING TORNADOES AS WELL.

STRONG/COLD UPPER LOW MOVING NEWD FROM NERN UT TO WRN SD TONIGHT. 
ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW NOW SWRN NEB WILL DEEPEN NNEWD INTO CENTRAL
SD TONIGHT. UNSEASONABLY STRONG POLAR JET WITH 500 WINDS TO 70 KT
AND 300 MB TO 110 KT COUPLED WITH SLY LLJ TO 50 KT PROVIDING
FAVORABLE KINEMATICS FOR AN OUTBREAK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN
PLAINS AND UPPER MS VALLEY LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

VERY MOIST AND UNSTABLE WARM SECTOR IN PLACE CAPPED BY ELEVATED MIX
LAYER FROM E OF DRY LINE IN CENTRAL/SRN HIGH PLAINS NEWD TO
SURFACE BOUNDARIES INTO SRN MN AND CNTRL WI. 

EXAMINING 12Z ETA RUN ALONG WITH MODEL SOUNDINGS FOR THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING...CONFIRMS THAT AIRMASS WILL BECOME EXTREMELY
UNSTABLE...CAPES AOA 5000 J/KG...AND VERY FAVORABLY SHEARED FOR
RAPID DEVELOPMENT OF TORNADIC SUPERCELLS IN HIGH RISK AREA.  

AS COUPLED STRONG JETS INTERACT WITH FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDING
NEWD INTO SRN MN TO E OF SFC LOW IN NEB ONLY QUESTION WILL BE
TIMING OF CONVECTIVE INITIATION. APPEARS BY MID AFTERNOON CAP WILL
WEAKEN SUFFICIENTLY TO ALLOW RAPID SEVERE THUNDERSTORM FORMATION
VICINITY OF BOUNDARY NRN AND WRN PORTION OF HIGH RISK AREA.  

AS CAP CONTINUES TO WEAKEN SWD ALONG DRY LINE WITH
HEATING...ADDITIONAL RAPID SUPERCELL THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT
EXPECTED INTO KS BY LATER AFTERNOON WHERE CAPES WILL BE IN EXCESS
OF 3500 J/KG AND STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL BE IN PLACE AS THE
UPPER TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE ROCKIES. ADDITIONAL SEVERE STORMS
ALSO EXPECTED FURTHER S ALONG DRY LINE INTO SWRN TX BUT LIKELY MORE
ISOLATED DUE TO WEAKER WIND PROFILES AND DELAYED SURFACE HEATING
WITH CURRENT CLOUD COVER.

GIVEN THE LARGE AREA OF VERY UNSTABLE AIR...WIDESPREAD SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP RAPIDLY E/NE ACROSS THE PLAINS INTO THE
UPPER MS VALLEY VICINITY AND S OF SURFACE BOUNDARIES.  

ACTIVITY EXPECTED TO CONTINUE WELL AFTER DARK AS LOW LEVEL JET
INTENSIFIES AND FUELS A SVR MCS MOVING EWD ACROSS UPPER MS
VALLEY.     

..HALES.. 06/05/99

NNNN


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