05 Jun 1999 - 06:14:16 UTC 

ZCZC MKCSWODY1 000
ACUS1 KMKC 050614
MKC AC 050614

CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK...REF AFOS NMCGPH94O.

VALID 051200Z - 061200Z

REF WW NUMBER 0384...VALID TIL 0700Z
REF WW NUMBER 0385...VALID TIL 0800Z
REF WW NUMBER 0386...VALID TIL 1000Z
REF WW NUMBER 0387...VALID TIL 1200Z

THERE IS A HIGH RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER ERN NEB..SERN SD..XTRM SWRN
MN..FAR NWRN IA...TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 NNE BUB 40 NE ANW
25 ENE 9V9 45 WSW RWF 20 W FRM 45 NE OMA 25 SE LNK 15 S GRI 40 N
GRI 40 NNE BUB.

THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER N-CENTRAL KS..CENTRAL/ERN NEB
..ERN SD..CENTRAL/SRN MN..NWRN IA...TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM
25 SSW BRD RST 50 WNW DSM 25 W FNB 15 SSE RSL 25 SW HLC 25 NW BBW
35 WNW VTN 30 ENE PHP 55 S FAR 25 SSW BRD.

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM
15 ENE MTC 25 WNW TOL 15 W BEH 25 ENE DBQ 15 E DSM 30 ENE FNB
30 W EMP 15 NW OKC 45 NNE ABI 45 NE BGS 25 NW LBB 35 ESE DHT
20 NNW GCK 20 E LBF 25 NW MHN 30 NE CDR 45 NNE RAP 30 ENE JMS
30 E INL.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 E MSS 15 SW SYR
20 WNW JHW ...CONT... 30 SSE DTW 40 WSW TOL 15 SSW MMO 25 E IRK
30 S OJC 20 ESE ADM JCT 60 NE P07 30 SSE HOB 20 SSE TCC 30 N SAF
25 WNW GUP 55 NNW GCN 35 E U31 40 NE 4LW 15 NE DLS 45 NNE 4OM.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 SE HUM 45 NE JAN
35 SSW BNA 45 ESE LOZ 35 E TRI 30 NNW AGS 25 SW SSI.

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM FORECAST DISCUSSION...
TODAY WILL LIKELY BE A MORE ACTIVE CONVECTIVE DAY ACROSS THE
CENTRAL AND NRN PLAINS STATES THAN FRIDAY...AS STRONG UPPER LOW
OVER THE SOUTHWEST BEGINS LIFTING NEWD INTO THE HIGH PLAINS. 
SIGNIFICANT MID AND UPPER LEVEL SPEED MAX WILL ROTATE AROUND UPPER
LOW WITH 110+ KT H25 JET /70 KT AT H5/ NOSING INTO SRN NEB BY LATE
IN THE DAY. SURFACE LOW CURRENTLY OVER WRN NEB WILL LIKEWISE
DEEPEN AND LIFT SLOWLY NEWD INTO S-CENTRAL SD ALONG LEFT EXIT
REGION OF APPROACHING UPPER JET. MOISTURE WILL AGAIN BE PLENTIFUL
/LARGE AREA OF 70+ SURFACE DEW POINTS/ AND WILL SUPPORT EXTREME
INSTABILITY FROM THE LOWER GREAT LAKES INTO THE CENTRAL
PLAINS...WITH SURFACE-BASED CAPES WELL OVER 3000 J/KG. IN
ADDITION...INCREASING UVV/S AND SLIGHT COOLING JUST ABOVE THE
BOUNDARY LAYER WILL PROVIDE LESS OF A CAP ACROSS THE WARM SECTOR
INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS AS COMPARED TO FRIDAY. WITH SIGNIFICANT
INSTABILITY AND SHEAR BECOMING CO-LOCATED...AN OUTBREAK OF SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS INCLUDING TORNADIC SUPERCELLS IS EXPECTED FROM THE
CENTRAL PLAINS NEWD TOWARDS THE UPPER MS VALLEY. THE GREATEST
CONCENTRATION IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME TO DEVELOP INTO ERN NEB/SERN
SD/NWRN IA/SWRN MN THROUGH THE EVENING.

A PUBLIC SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK /MKCPWOMKC/ WILL BE ISSUED BY
1200Z.

...UPPER MS VALLEY INTO THE GREAT LAKES...
MCS SHOULD BE ONGOING ALONG NOSE OF 50 KT LLJ AND NORTH OF H85
BOUNDARY INTO MN/NRN IA EARLY IN THE PERIOD...WHICH MAY BE
ACCOMPANIED BY ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. CURRENT SURFACE
ANALYSIS INDICATED DEVELOPING WARM FRONT FROM ERN SD INTO CENTRAL
IL IN THE WAKE OF FRIDAY MORNINGS MCS...WHICH WILL LIFT NWD ON
INCREASING SWLY LOW LEVEL FLOW INTO THE LOWER LAKES THROUGH THE
MORNING. GIVEN LOCATION OF THIS FRONT AND WLY MID LEVEL FLOW NEAR
50 KT ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES...MCS COULD RE-INTENSIFY AND PROPAGATE
ESEWD ACROSS WI AND INTO MI THROUGH THE DAY AS STRONG INSTABILITY
DEVELOPS AHEAD OF IT. THIS WOULD MAINTAIN A THREAT OF DAMAGING
WINDS AND ISOLATED TORNADOES. EVEN IF EXPECTED MCS FAILS TO
MATERIALIZE...SHEAR AND INSTABILITY PARAMETERS REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR
ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS INCLUDING TORNADIC SUPERCELLS ALONG
WARM FRONT AS IT LIFTS NWD INTO NRN MN/WI/MI.

...SRN INTO THE NRN PLAINS...
WITH 994 MB SURFACE LOW DEVELOPING INTO SRN SD DURING THE DAY...AND
STRONGER EWD PUSH TO DRY LINE ACROSS CENTRAL NEB/KS...WARM SECTOR
DEVELOPMENT WILL BECOME MORE LIKELY BY LATE IN THE DAY. THIS WILL
BE ENHANCED BY LEADING VORT MAX/SHORTWAVE TROUGH FORECAST TO LIFT
INTO WRN NEB/WRN SD THIS AFTERNOON. THOUGH EARLIER CONVECTION OVER
SD/MN EARLY SATURDAY MORNING WILL HAVE MODIFIED AIR MASS OVER PARTS
OF THIS AREA...AIR MASS REMAINS RELATIVELY CONVECTIVE FREE INTO
NEB/WRN IA/KS. THIS WOULD SUGGEST EXTREME INSTABILITY WILL AGAIN
DEVELOP INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS TODAY UNDER 8 C/KM LAPSE RATES...
WITH SURFACE-BASED CAPES APPROACHING 5000 J/KG INTO ERN NEB/SD. 
EXPECT RAPID SEVERE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT TO OCCUR INVOF LOW
CENTER AND ALONG DRY LINE DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON...AS CAP IS
OVERCOME. DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND STORM-RELATIVE FLOW ARE FORECAST TO
BE SUPPORTIVE OF SUPERCELLS AND POSSIBLY A FEW STRONG TORNADOES...
ESPECIALLY INVOF OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES AND LOW CENTER WHERE INFLOW
WILL BE ENHANCED. CONVECTION SHOULD ONCE AGAIN ORGANIZE INTO AN
MCS INCLUDING SEVERAL BOW ECHOES/LEWPS INTO THE NRN PLAINS/NRN MS
VALLEY THROUGH THE NIGHT...AS STRONG LOW CENTER LIFTS NEWD INTO THE
NRN PLAINS.  

...CONVECTION PRIOR TO 12Z STARTING TIME OF OUTLOOK...
LINE OF STRONG/SEVERE CONVECTION WITH ISOLATED DAMAGING WINDS WILL
CONTINUE SHIFTING SEWD INTO AL/GA EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. 
HOWEVER...SEVERE POTENTIAL IS EXPECTED TO DIMINISH WITH THIS
ACTIVITY PRIOR TO 12Z AND WILL NOT BE INCLUDED IN THIS OUTLOOK.
 
..EVANS.. 06/05/99

NNNN


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