SPC DAY-1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
SPC DAY-1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
04 May 1999 - 06:12:32 UTC
ZCZC MKCSWODY1 000 ACUS1 KMKC 040612 MKC AC 040612 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK...REF AFOS NMCGPH94O. VALID 041200Z - 051200Z REF WW NUMBER 0201...VALID TIL 0700Z REF WW NUMBER 0202...VALID TIL 1000Z REF WW NUMBER 0203...VALID TIL 1000Z REF WW NUMBER 0204...VALID TIL 1000Z THERE IS A HIGH RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER NERN TX..SRN AR..NRN LA.. AND EXTREME SERN OK...TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 ENE LFK 35 SSE TYR 45 NNW TYR 30 ENE PRX 40 WSW HOT 15 SSW PBF 35 SW GLH 25 SSE MLU 35 WNW ESF 50 ENE LFK. THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER AR..SRN MO..FAR WRN TN..NWRN MS..NRN LA..NERN TX..AND SERN OK...TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM DAL MLC 35 NW FYV 10 NE SGF 25 NNE P02 10 SE DYR 30 SSE UOX 35 W JAN 15 WSW ESF 50 NNE CLL DAL. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 N FSI 10 W ICT 30 WSW RSL 40 W EAR 25 N OFK 20 NNE FOD 20 SSE RFD 20 NNW LAF 45 ENE OWB 25 SW BNA 45 SSW TCL MCB 30 NW LCH AUS 40 SW BWD 20 N FSI. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 60 ENE INL 10 NW RHI SBN 30 N LEX LOZ 10 ENE TYS ATL 30 S CSG 40 ESE PNS ...CONT... 15 S PSX 35 SE HDO 55 WSW JCT 10 NNE SJT 70 SE CDS 25 NNW CSM 50 SSE LBL 35 NE LVS 40 SE GUC 35 ESE CAG 15 NE LAR 35 NW CDR 40 SSW Y22 70 WNW MOT. ...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM FORECAST DISCUSSION... INTENSE MID LEVEL SPEED MAX...ALONG BACK SIDE OF DEEPENING TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE FOUR-CORNERS REGION AT THIS TIME...WILL CONTINUE SEWD INTO THE SRN HIGH PLAINS BY THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD. THIS SPEED MAX AND ASSOCIATED UPPER LOW WILL THEN SHIFT EWD ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS DURING THE DAY. GIVEN STRENGTH OF WINDS ALOFT AND PROXIMITY OF RICH GULF MOISTURE /SURFACE DEW POINTS AROUND 70F/... AN OUTBREAK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS INCLUDING SUSTAINED SUPERCELLS AND TORNADOES WILL AGAIN DEVELOP INTO ERN PARTS OF THE SRN PLAINS ...ESPECIALLY INTO THE ARKLATEX REGION. A PUBLIC SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK /AFOS HEADER MKCPWOMKC/ WILL BE ISSUED BY 1100Z. ...SRN PLAINS... MAIN WILD CARD FOR THIS FORECAST WILL BE LOCATION OF CONVECTION TUESDAY MORNING...WHICH WILL SET UP LOCAL CONVERGENT AREAS AND EFFECT DESTABILIZATION PATTERN OVER PARTS OF THIS AREA. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE ONGOING AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD IN THE FORM OF A SQUALL LINE INTO NRN TX/OK AS MAIN SPEED MAX APPROACHES. EXPECT MODERATE TO STRONG INSTABILITY AXIS TO DEVELOP BY THE EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON AHEAD OF THIS ACTIVITY INTO NERN TX AND POSSIBLY ERN OK...WHERE SURFACE-BASED CAPES FROM 3000-4000 J/KG ARE POSSIBLE. FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE SIGNIFICANT DEEP LAYER SHEAR WITH BRN SHEARS NEAR 100 M2/S2...LOW LEVEL HELICITIES TO 400 M2/S2 ...AND LOW AND MID LEVEL STORM-RELATIVE WINDS OVER 20 M/S. THIS IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE AN ENHANCED THREAT OF SUPERCELLS AND TORNADOES ...GIVEN THE VERY UNSTABLE AIR MASS AND PRESENCE OF 70F SURFACE DEW POINTS. ACTIVITY SHOULD MAINTAIN/RE-ORGANIZE INTO A SEVERE SQUALL LINE INTO THE MS RIVER VALLEY OVERNIGHT. ...CENTRAL PLAINS... AS COLD FRONT AND UPPER TROUGH SHIFT ACROSS THE PLAINS... CONVERGENCE AND UVV/S WILL INCREASE ACROSS ERN KS AND INTO NEB/IA/MO THROUGH THE PERIOD. MOISTURE SHOULD REMAIN SUFFICIENT INTO THIS REGION FOR ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS GIVEN COLD AIR ADVECTION ALOFT...THOUGH INTENSE CONVECTION OVER THE SRN PLAINS MAY LIMIT FURTHER MOISTURE TRANSPORT INTO THIS AREA. ..EVANS.. 05/04/99 NNNN
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