SPC DAY-1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
SPC DAY-1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
03 May 1999 - 16:15:33 UTC
ZCZC MKCSWODY1 000 ACUS1 KMKC 031615 MKC AC 031615 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK...REF AFOS NMCGPH94O. VALID 031630Z - 041200Z THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER NORTH CENTRAL TEXAS...MOST OF OKLAHOMA AND SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS. THIS AREA IS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 ESE CDS 55 WNW CSM 50 S DDC 45 SW RSL 30 NNW HUT EMP 25 N BVO 25 NNW MLC 45 WSW PRX 55 ENE ACT 25 ESE BWD 40 SSW ABI 65 NNW ABI 10 ESE CDS. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 ENE Y22 50 SW JMS 25 S ABR 10 S SUX 20 SSW FLV 35 S JLN 20 S PGO 25 WNW GGG 35 ESE CLL 30 WSW AUS 50 SW JCT 45 ENE BGS 35 SSE LBL 45 E MCK 60 ENE CDR 40 ENE Y22. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 NNW ELO 25 NNE DBQ 10 ESE STL 20 WNW MEM 30 WNW MEI 30 WSW GPT 30 W HUM 20 NE GLS 35 WNW VCT 30 NW LRD 35 NW DRT 30 SSE 1K5 40 ENE 4LJ 25 ESE TAD 15 W LVS 20 NW GUP 30 SSW U17 35 N ENV 30 W SUN 45 NNW 27U 70 WNW FCA. ...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM FORECAST DISCUSSION... ...SYNOPSIS... NEGATIVELY TILTED LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL PIVOT ENEWD THROUGH THE ROCKY MOUNTAINS INTO THE HIGH PLAINS THROUGH PERIOD. SHORT WAVE TROUGH...EVIDENT ON WATER VAPOR IMAGES...FORECASTED BY MODELS TO MOVE ACROSS TX PANHANDLE INTO WRN OK LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND LIFT NEWD INTO CENTRAL OK/SERN KS DURING THE EVENING. STRONGER VORT CENTER WILL MOVE ACROSS SRN ROCKIES INTO NWRN TX OVERNIGHT. SURFACE TROUGH/DRY LINE EXTENDED FROM WRN ND TO WRN TX AT 14Z WHILE COLD FRONT TRAILED SWWD THROUGH WY INTO UT. TROUGH POSITION WILL REMAIN ALMOST STATIONARY THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON BUT AXIS SHOULD SHIFT SLOWLY EWD TONIGHT AS COLD FRONT ADVANCES INTO CENTRAL/SRN HIGH PLAINS. 40 TO 50 KT LOW LEVEL JET AXIS WILL MEANWHILE EXTEND FROM N CENTRAL TX THROUGH OK INTO CENTRAL/ERN KS AND ERN NEB THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT WITH CONTINUED ADVECTION/INFLOW OF HIGHER THETAE AIR MASS THROUGH THE PLAINS. ...N CENTRAL TX/OK/SRN KS... LOW LEVEL JET WILL MAINTAIN SIGNIFICANT INFLOW OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WITH SURFACE DEWPOINTS AROUND 65 F. CLEARING SKIES EVIDENT ON VISIBLE IMAGES WILL FURTHER CONTRIBUTE TO STRONG DESTABILIZATION OVER REGION WITH LATE AFTERNOON MUCAPES FORECASTED FROM 3500 TO 4500 J/KG OVER MDT RISK AREA. AS SHORT WAVE APPROACHES WRN OK/TX BORDER...LIFTING WILL DEEPEN NEAR/ALONG DRY LINE WITH THUNDERSTORMS INCREASING AS THEY MOVE EWD INTO INSTABILITY AXIS. 50 KT MID LEVEL SWLY FLOW SPREADING OVER LOW LEVEL JET AXIS WILL PROVIDE SUFFICIENT SHEAR FOR A FEW STRONG OR VIOLENT TORNADIC SUPERCELLS GIVEN THE ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND THE HIGH INSTABILITY. WET BULB ZERO HEIGHTS NEAR 8000 FT AND DRY AIR AT MID LEVELS ALSO INDICATE POTENTIAL FOR SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS HAIL AND WIND EVENTS. ...SD...NEB...NRN KS... NRN PORTIONS OF LOW LEVEL JET WILL BRING INCREASING MOISTURE TO REGION WITH SURFACE DEWPOINTS POSSIBLY EXCEEDING 60 F AS FAR N AS NRN NEB BY LATE AFTERNOON. BREAKS IN CLOUD COVER WILL ALLOW AFTERNOON HIGHS NEAR 75 TO 80 RESULTING IN MUCAPES CLIMBING TO AROUND 2000 TO 3000 J/KG. TIMING OF CONVECTIVE INITIATION MAIN UNCERTAINTY BUT EXPECT CONVERGENCE ALONG SURFACE TROUGH AND INCREASING UPWARD MOTION ALOFT AHEAD OF UPPER TROUGH WILL INITIATE CONVECTION LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING. WET BULB ZERO HEIGHTS NEAR 7000 FT AND DRY AIR AT MID LEVELS INDICATE AT LEAST SCATTERED WIND AND HAIL EVENTS. WHILE WEAKNESS IN THE MID LEVEL WIND SPEEDS ARE NOT FAVORABLE FOR TORNADOES...THE STRONG LOW LEVEL SHEAR NEAR LOW LEVEL JET AXIS MAY SUPPORT ISOLATED SUPERCELLS. ..ROGASH.. 05/03/99 NNNN
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