SPC DAY-1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
SPC DAY-1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
08 Apr 1999 - 19:58:11 UTCPlease read disclaimer "for information regarding the availability and timeliness of forecasts and products.
ZCZC MKCSWODY1 000 ACUS1 KMKC 081958 MKC AC 081958 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK...REF AFOS NMCGPH94O. VALID 082000Z - 091200Z REF WW NUMBER 0134...VALID TIL 0000Z THERE IS A HIGH RISK OF SVR TSTMS THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR MOST OF WRN/SRN IA...NRN MO...AND EXTREME W CENTRAL IL TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 SE OJC STJ 15 NW SUX 30 W 3SE 30 S MCW 25 ESE CID 40 ESE BRL 45 NNW ALN STL 20 ENE VIH 45 SSE SZL 45 SE OJC. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 W ZZV 30 E 5I3 20 NNE SPA 35 W CAE 25 SE AGS 65 E MCN 20 N MCN 35 WSW CHA 35 SW MKL 20 SW TXK 25 NNE ACT 20 WNW MWL 30 ENE ADM 20 ENE TUL 40 WSW OJC 15 NE FNB 15 WSW LNK 30 NNW EAR 35 SSW ANW 30 NNE ANW 30 NW FSD 30 SE RWF 10 E LSE 20 E MKE 15 SW JXN 35 NW MFD 25 W ZZV. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 NE ERI 20 SE DUJ 45 SSE CHO 15 NW GSB 15 ENE ILM ...CONT... 50 SSE JAX 55 NW AYS 20 NNE LGC 35 NNW TCL ELD 25 SW TXK 30 NE ACT 20 W MWL 25 NE ADM 15 NE TUL 35 SSE TOP 35 S FNB 30 SSE HSI 10 SE LBF 45 WNW VTN 35 ENE PIR 40 NE ATY 45 NE MSP GRB MBS 35 NE MTC. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 SSW PSM 35 S RUT 30 SSE SLK 20 NNE PBG 20 N BML 30 WSW 47B. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 NNW UKI RBL 55 E MHS 45 ENE 4LW 25 W BKE 60 SSW S80 45 NW SUN 10 NW TWF 30 WNW EKO 35 E NFL 65 NNW BIH 30 W BIH 55 N BFL 45 WNW BFL 30 WSW PRB. ...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM FORECAST DISCUSSION... ...OUTBREAK OF SUPERCELLS WITH STRONG TORNADOES EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS WRN/SRN IA AND NRN MO... ...EXTREME ERN NEB/NE KS/SRN AND WRN IA/NRN MO AREA... LATEST RADAR AND VISIBLE IMAGERY SHOWS A BROKEN BAND OF DEVELOPING SUPERCELLS ON THE DRYLINE NEAR THE MO RIVER. THE 18Z SOUNDING FROM TOP SHOWED EXTREMELY STRONG VERTICAL SHEAR /BRN SHEAR NEAR 190 M2/S2 AND ESTIMATED 0-3 KM SRH VALUES AROUND 500 M2/S2/ AND SUBSTANTIAL SURFACE-BASED CAPE /IN EXCESS OF 3000 J/KG/. VERTICAL SHEAR IS NOT QUITE AS EXTREME OVER ERN NEB...WHERE TORNADIC SUPERCELLS HAVE BEEN QUICKER TO DEVELOP/ORGANIZE. EXPECT THE DRYLINE TO CONTINUE TO SURGE ENEWD TOWARD NW MO AND SW IA THIS AFTERNOON...WITH SUPERCELL DEVELOPMENT EXPECTED TO INCREASE SWD DOWN THE DRYLINE TOWARD NW MO. GIVEN THE VERY STRONG VERTICAL SHEAR E OF THE DRYLINE AND ALONG THE WARM FRONT...1500-3000 J/KG SURFACE-BASED CAPE...AND RELATIVELY WEAK CONVECTIVE INHIBITION/LOW LFC HEIGHTS...EXPECT THE THREAT FOR TORNADIC SUPERCELLS TO INCREASE DURING THE AFTERNOON. THE COMBINATION OF PARAMETERS APPEARS SUPPORTIVE OF A FEW STRONG/POSSIBLY VIOLENT TORNADOES...SOME OF WHICH COULD BE LONG-LIVED...FROM THE MO RIVER EWD ACROSS WRN/SRN IA AND NRN MO THROUGH THIS EVENING. ...SRN MO/AR/ERN OK/N TX AREA... AVAILABLE 18Z SOUNDINGS FROM SGF AND LIT STILL SHOW A RELATIVELY STRONG CAP OVER SRN MO AND AR...AND THIS CAP LIKELY EXTENDS SWWD OVER MOST OF ERN OK AND N TX. IN ADDITION...WIDESPREAD MID/HIGH CLOUDS ARE INHIBITING SURFACE HEATING OVER MUCH OF AR/SRN MO. THE ONLY AREA OF A POTENTIALLY WEAKER CAP IS ALONG THE DRYLINE IN N CENTRAL TX WHERE SURFACE TEMPERATURES HAVE WARMED TO THE MID/UPPER 80S AND DEWPOINTS REMAIN IN THE UPPER 60S. IF ISOLATED STORMS CAN DEVELOP THIS AREA DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON...LARGE HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE. ...ERN TN/KY SWD TO ERN GA... AN AXIS OF 2500-3000 J/KG SURFACE BASED CAPE AND MINIMAL CONVECTIVE INHIBITION EXISTS FROM CENTRAL/ERN KY TO ERN GA. THIS INSTABILITY...COMBINED WITH SUBSTANTIAL MID LEVEL SPEED SHEAR...MAY SUPPORT A FEW ORGANIZED STORMS WITH ISOLATED LARGE HAIL THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. ..THOMPSON.. 04/08/99 EXPERIMENTAL PROBABILITY GRAPHICS ARE UPDATED FOR THE DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOKS AT 1300 AND 2000 UTC AND CAN BE FOUND ON THE SPC WEB PAGE AT: WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/PRODUCTS/ NNNN
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