SPC DAY-1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
08 Apr 1999 - 16:46:04 UTC
ZCZC MKCSWODY1 000 ACUS1 KMKC 081646 MKC AC 081646 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK...REF AFOS NMCGPH94O. VALID 081630Z - 091200Z REF WW NUMBER 0131...VALID TIL 0170Z REF WW NUMBER 0132...VALID TIL 0220Z THERE IS A HIGH RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER MOST OF MISSOURI...PARTS OF SOUTHERN IOWA...WESTERN ILLINOIS AND NORTHERN ARKANSAS. THIS AREA IS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 55 NW SGF 10 SSE FLV 35 N FNB 35 SW DSM OTM 10 ENE BRL 30 E UIN 25 N ALN 25 ESE CGI JBR 45 SE HRO 55 NW SGF. THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER CENTRAL AND EASTERN ILLINOIS...CENTRAL IOWA...CENTRAL ARKANSAS...EASTERN KANSAS AND EASTERN NEBRASKAS...AND EXTREME WESTERN PORTIONS OF TENNESSEE AND KENTUCKY. THIS AREA IS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 W BIE OLU SUX FOD DBQ 25 ESE MMO 20 SW DNV 20 W OWB MKL MEM LIT FSM UMN 20 N EMP 25 W BIE. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM MCK IML MHN ANW FSD FRM MSN BEH TOL CAK HLG 5I3 CSV MSL TUP GLH TXK DUA ADM PNC HUT RSL MCK. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 NE ERI BFD 15 W BGM 35 E ART 25 NNE BTV 40 NNE BML 10 SW 47B ...CONT... 25 S CTY AUO ELD SEP OKC 35 SW ICT 35 SSW HLC GLD AKO CYS GCC RAP ATY MSP GRB MBS 35 NE MTC ...CONT... PBI FMY. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM LAS 60 W DRA 45 W BIH 35 ENE SAC LOL BAM DPG PUC CNY PGA 60 S SGU LAS. ...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM FORECAST DISCUSSION... STRONG UPPER LOW AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW WILL MOVE ENEWD ACROSS SRN NEB THROUGH IA THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT WITH TRAILING DRY LINE/COLD FRONT SWEEPING EWD THRU MO AND MID MS RIVER VALLEYS THROUGH PERIOD. THIS REGION WILL ALSO EXPERIENCE UPPER FORCING VIA CIRCULATION INDUCED BY JET STREAKS ACROSS WRN TX AND THE WRN GREAT LAKES. 50 TO 60 KT LOW LEVEL JET THROUGH WARM SECTOR WILL MAINTAIN INFLOW OF HIGHER THETAE AIR MASS ACROSS ERN KS/MO WITH WARM AIR/MOISTURE ADVECTION BRINGING DESTABILIZATION FURTHER E INTO WRN KY/SRN IL. THUS EXPECT MOST OF REGION TO HAVE AROUND 1500 TO 2500 J/KG MUCAPES NEAR TIME OF CONVECTIVE INITIATION. MID LEVEL FLOW RANGING FROM 70 TO 90 KT WILL RESULT IN VERY FAVORABLE SHEAR FOR A FEW TORNADIC SUPERCELLS WITH DRY AIR AND STRONG FLOW AT MID LEVELS ALSO CONDUCIVE FOR SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS HIGH WIND EVENTS. ..ROGASH.. 04/08/99 NNNN
Return to SPC Forecasts page
Storm Prediction Center Home Page