22 Jan 1999 - 01:25:17 UTC 
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ZCZC MKCSWODY1 000
ACUS1 KMKC 220125
MKC AC 220125

CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK...REF AFOS NMCGPH94O.

VALID 220200Z - 221200Z

REF WW 0018...VALID UNTIL 0300Z.
REF WW 0019...VALID UNTIL 0300Z
REF WW 0020...VALID UNTIL 0400Z.
REF WW 0021...VALID UNTIL 0400Z.
RED WW 0022...VALID UNTIL 0400Z.

THERE IS A HIGH RISK OF SVR TSTMS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT
OVER PARTS OF EASTERN AND SOUTHERN AR...NORTHERN LA...WESTERN
MS...AND SOUTHWEST TN...TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM HEZ SHV TXK HOT
ARG DYR MKL 25 ESE GWO HEZ.

SOUTH OF THE HIGH RISK AREA...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER
PARTS OF SOUTHEAST TX AND WESTERN/CENTRAL LA...TO THE RIGHT OF A
LINE FROM GLS 40 SW LFK SHV HEZ LFT 25 SW 7R4.

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM
45 SSE VCT CLL PRX JLN SZL UIN BMI DNV BMG OWB 55 SSW CKV CBM LUL
30 S HUM.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 SSE VCT CLL ACT
ABI FSI TUL OJC 3OI DBQ MKE DTW LBE MRB ROA TYS LGC PNS.

TORNADO OUTBREAK IS ONGOING OVER PARTS OF CENTRAL/EASTERN
AR...WHERE SEVERAL DAMAGING TORNADOES HAVE ALREADY OCCURRED. 00Z
SOUNDINGS SHOW STEEP LAPSE RATES AND MODERATE INSTABILITY IN
PLACE...AS WELL AS VERY STRONG SHEAR PROFILES /HELICITY VALUES OVER
400 M2/S2 AND SFC-6 KM SHEAR AROUND 50 KNOTS/. MODELS SUGGEST WIND
FIELDS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE THROUGH THE NIGHT...WITH
PERSISTENT THREAT OF TORNADIC SUPERCELLS. PRIMARY THREAT SHOULD
SLOWLY SHIFT EASTWARD ACROSS EASTERN AR INTO NORTHWEST MS AND
EXTREME WESTERN TN OVERNIGHT.

VERY FAVORABLE WIND FIELDS EXTEND SOUTHWARD INTO PARTS OF SOUTHERN
LA AND SOUTHEAST TX...WHERE MID LEVEL CAP HAS LIMITED CONVECTION
THUS FAR. HOWEVER...MAIN UPPER SYSTEM CURRENTLY OVER CENTRAL TX
WILL SPREAD EASTWARD AND BEGIN AFFECTING SOUTHEAST TX/SOUTHWEST LA
TOWARD MORNING. CONVECTION WILL LIKELY DEVELOP IN THIS AREA LATE
TONIGHT...AND RAPIDLY BECOME SEVERE. STEEP LAPSE RATES AND DRY MID
LEVEL AIRMASS SUGGEST SIGNIFICANT HAIL/WIND THREAT...WITH A FEW
TORNADOES ALSO POSSIBLE. THEREFORE...HAVE UPGRADED THIS AREA TO
MODERATE RISK FOR THE REST OF THE NIGHT.

..HART.. 01/22/99

NNNN


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