SPC DAY-1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK

21 Jan 1999 - 19:34:25 UTC disclaimer "for information regarding the availability and timeliness of forecasts and products.
ZCZC MKCSWODY1 000
ACUS1 KMKC 211934
MKC AC 211933

CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK...REF AFOS NMCGPH94O.

VALID 211930Z - 221200Z

THERE IS A HIGH RISK OF SVR TSTMS FOR MUCH OF CENTRAL/ERN AR...NRN
LA...AND NW MS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 W JAN 10 NNE HEZ ESF
40 NW POE 30 S TXK 45 W HOT 55 SSW HRO 20 SSW UNO 30 NNW ARG 30 SE
P02 30 SW DYR 15 WNW UOX GWO 30 W JAN.

SURROUNDING THE HIGH RISK AREA THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO
THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 SSW BPT 40 ENE HOU 20 WSW LFK TYR 10
ENE PRX 30 NW FSM 30 SE OJC 30 SW IRK UIN 15 SW SPI 25 SSW MTO 35
SSW EVV 55 SSW CKV 45 NNE MEI 30 SW LUL 45 ESE 7R4.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 SW GLS 25 WSW HOU
45 NW HOU 55 ENE CLL 40 SSW TYR 40 W TYR 40 NNE ACT 20 NNE BWD
35 NE SJT 30 E INK 25 NW GDP 20 E TCS 30 WSW ONM 35 WSW ABQ
35 N ABQ 10 WSW LVS TCC 35 SSW AMA 20 SW LTS 40 S OKC 35 WSW TUL
20 SE EMP 15 ESE STJ 30 ESE DSM 15 E DBQ 20 SW MKE 30 WSW GRR ARB
15 W LBE 35 NE EKN 30 NNW LYH 10 W TYS 10 SW GAD 25 W PNS.

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM FORECAST DISCUSSION...

SPECIAL 18Z SOUDINGS FROM LCH/SHV/LZK/JAN HAVE ALL SHOWN
SUBSTANTIAL WEAKENING OF THE CAP AND DEEPENING OF THE LOW-LEVEL
MOIST LAYER /ESPECIALLY AT LZK AND JAN/ SINCE 12Z. MEANWHILE...THE
DRYLINE IS SHARPENING IN CENTRAL TX...WITH INCREASING LOW-LEVEL
CONVERGENCE/LIFT EXPECTED THROUGH THIS EVENING OVER E CENTRAL AND
NE TX. SURFACE-BASED CAPE VALUES HAVE INCREASED WITH DAYTIME
HEATING TO 1500-2000 J/KG IN THE BROAD WARM SECTOR OVER E
TX/AR/LA/MS.
  
SCATTERED HIGH-BASED STORMS ARE DEVELOPING SEWD TOWARD SE NM AND W
TX. THIS CONVECTION IS ASSOCIATED WITH LIFT IN THE EXIT REGION OF
THE INTENSE MID/UPPER JET FROM CENTRAL AZ TO SRN NM. EXPECT THIS
REGION OF ASCENT TO SPREAD OVER W TX THIS AFTERNOON AND CENTRAL/ERN
TX BY LATE THIS EVENING. THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT APPEARS
INCREASINGLY LIKELY BY LATE AFTERNOON/EVE ALONG THE DRYLINE IN E/NE
TX...WITH ADDITIONAL CONVECTION LIKELY IN THE WARM SECTOR IN
ASSOCIATION WITH A LEAD SHORTWAVE TROUGH NOW OVER E TX. 18Z
SOUNDINGS AND LOCAL PROFILERS/VWP/S ALL SHOW THE STRONGER VERTICAL
SHEAR FROM E TX TO MO IN THE REGION OF STRONGEST MID LEVEL FLOW. 
MID LEVEL WINDS SHOULD INCREASE OVER THE WARM SECTOR THROUGH THIS
EVENING AS THE MID/UPPER TROUGH AMPLIFIES OVER TX TONIGHT. 
THIS...ALONG WITH BACKING/STRENGTHENING LOW-LEVEL WINDS...WILL
PROVIDE AN INCREASINGLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR SUPERCELLS WITH
THE THREAT OF TORNADOES. OVERNIGHT...EXPECT CONVECTION TO EVOLVE
INTO A SQUALL LINE ALONG/E OF THE DRYLINE FROM EXTREME E TX/WRN LA
TO WRN/CENTRAL AR.

...MO AREA...
A WELL-DEFINED MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS LIFTING NEWD OVER ERN
KS/MO. A BROKEN BAND OF ELEVATED STORMS IS MOVING NEWD IN
ASSOCIATION WITH THIS TROUGH...AND THERE HAVE BEEN A FEW REPORTS OF
LARGE HAIL WITH THESE STORMS. THIS ELEVATED CONVECTION AND
ISOLATED LARGE HAIL THREAT WILL PERSIST FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS
BEFORE WEAKENING BY TONIGHT.
 
..THOMPSON.. 01/21/99

BEGINNING ON FEBRUARY 15, 1999 THE DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK WILL BE
ISSUED AT THE FOLLOWING TIMES...06Z...13Z...1630Z...20Z...AND 01Z.

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SPC DAY-1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK

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