SPC DAY-1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
SPC DAY-1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
21 Jan 1999 - 14:57:16 UTC disclaimer "for information regarding the availability and timeliness of forecasts and products.
ZCZC MKCSWODY1 000 ACUS1 KMKC 211457 SWODY1 MKC AC 211457 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK...REF AFOS NMCGPH94O. VALID 211500Z - 221200Z THERE IS A HIGH RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 ENE JAN 40 ENE HEZ ESF 50 NW POE 30 SSW TXK 30 ESE PGO 50 S HRO 65 S UNO 10 SSW ARG 15 WSW DYR 25 SE MKL 20 NW TUP 45 E GWO 20 ENE JAN. THIS AREA INCLUDES MUCH OF ARKANSAS...NORTHERN LOUISIANA...NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI...AND SOUTHWESTERN TENNESSEE. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 E GLS 40 ENE HOU 20 WSW LFK TYR 10 NNW PRX 20 SE MKO 25 SSW JLN 30 NW SGF 30 ESE VIH 10 ENE OWB 40 WNW CSV 15 E BHM 30 S MOB. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 SW GLS 15 WNW HOU 45 ESE CLL 45 ENE CLL 65 NNE CLL 40 W TYR 35 SSW DAL 30 W SEP 25 WSW ABI 40 NW BGS 45 E ROW 20 SW 4CR 20 W GNT 80 SSE U17 30 ENE BCE 35 SE U24 50 ENE U24 25 NE PUC 40 NE CNY 15 E MTJ 30 WNW TAD 25 E CAO 45 NE AMA 10 NE FSI 50 NW MLC 20 ENE BVO 20 E CNU 20 N UIN 20 NNW MMO 30 WSW GRR ARB 15 S CAK 45 ESE PKB PSK SPA ATL PNS. ...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM FORECAST DISCUSSION... ...LOWER MS VALLEY... UPPER TROUGH...WITH PRIMARY AXIS THROUGH CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS AT 12Z...WILL AMPLIFY THROUGH PERIOD AS 150 KT JET STREAK MOVES INTO SRN ROCKIES. ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW CENTERED OVER OK AT 13Z WILL ACCORDINGLY DEEPEN NEAR TX/OK BORDER THROUGH THIS EVENING BEFORE MOVING EWD INTO AR/MO VICINITY OVERNIGHT. TRAILING DRY LINE WILL CONCURRENTLY SWING ACROSS ERN TX LATER HIS AFTERNOON WITH UPSTREAM STRONG COLD FRONT MERGING WITH DRY LINE AND ADVANCING INTO LA/AR OVERNIGHT. 12Z REGIONAL SOUNDINGS SHOW CAPPING OVER MOST OF RISK AREA INDICATING AT LEAST MODERATE FORCING MECHANISMS REQUIRED TO RELEASE CONVECTION IN WARM SECTOR. MODELS FORECAST DEVELOPING MCS OVER ERN AR/WRN TN/NRN MS AREA THIS AFTERNOON WITH CONVECTIVE SYSTEM MOVING EWD TONIGHT. AT MOMENT...LIFTING MECHANISMS FOR THIS NOT APPARENT SINCE SURFACE BOUNDARIES WELL TO THE N AND W WHILE UPPER TROUGH REMAINS TO THE W. BETTER CONVECTIVE THREAT APPEARS TO BE LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND ESPECIALLY OVERNIGHT WHEN UPPER TROUGH DYNAMICS PHASE WITH FORCING ALONG SURFACE BOUNDARIES OVER LOWER MS VALLEY. WILL HAVE TO MONITOR FOR BOTH SCENARIOS GIVEN THE SHEAR/THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES. MODIFIED FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW 1500 TO 2500 J/KG CAPES OVER HIGH RISK AREA WITH 50 KT LOW LEVEL JET AND APPROACHING 100 KT MID LEVEL SPEED MAX RESULTING IN SHEAR SUFFICIENT FOR TORNADIC SUPERCELLS. IN ADDITION...STRONG MID LEVEL FLOW...MID LEVEL DRY INTRUSION AND LOW WET BULB ZERO HEIGHTS INDICATE POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING DOWNBURSTS AND LARGE HAIL. ..ROGASH.. 01/21/99 BEGINNING ON FEBRUARY 15, 1999 THE DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK WILL BE ISSUED AT THE FOLLOWING TIMES...06Z...13Z...1630Z...20Z...AND 01Z. NNNN
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