-MKC AC 011513

CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK...REF AFOS NMCGPH94O.

VALID 011500Z - 021200Z

REF WW NUMBER 546...VALID TIL 1800Z

THERE IS A HIGH RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVR PTNS OF ERN SD..NERN NEB..IA..SRN MN..W CNTRL AND SWRN WI..AND EXTREME NWRN IL.  THE HIGH RISK AREA IS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 3OI OMA 15 W OFK 30 SSW MHE 20 E HON 15 NNE ATY 30 SE AXN 20 N EAU 25 SW CWA 20 W JVL 25 NNE UIN 3OI.

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 S FNB HSI 35 ESE MHN 55 W VTN 25 ENE RAP 30 W Y22 30 W BIS 25 WNW JMS GFK 40 SSE D45 35 SSW INL DLH 20 W MQT 15 E ESC 15 S TVC 25 ESE AZO 35 ENE OWB BNA MSL 15 SSW CBM GLH 20 NNE SGF 10 S FNB.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM PSX HOU 40 N BPT 35 NE SHV 10 NE FYV 25 ESE CNU EMP 20 NE RSL 30 SE IML 25 SE BFF 25 S 4DG 25 NW BPI 15 E BYI 40 SE 4LW 40 WSW RDM 35 E BLI...CONT... 15 E MSS 25 SSW MSV WAL.

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM FORECAST DISCUSSION...

...NRN PLAINS/UPR MS VLY...
12Z UPR AIR DATA SUPPORT EARLIER MODEL TRENDS HIGHLIGHTING PTNL FOR SGFNT SVR WX OUTBREAK. UNSEASONABLY STG UPR TROF OVR THE NRN ROCKIES IS EXPCD TO ACLT EWD ACRS THE NRN PLAINS TDA AND INTO THE UPR MS VLY TNGT.  ASSOCD DEEP SFC LOW OVR NRN HI PLAINS IS FCST ACRS NRN SD TDA CONTG INTO CNTRL MN TNGT.  STG CDFNT ENTERING THE HI PLAINS IS PROGD TO SURGE EWD INTO THE MID MO RIVER VLY BY LATE AFTN AND ACRS THE UPR MS VLY BY THE END OF THE PD.  VERY MOIST AMS IS IN PLACE AHD OF THE SYSTEM WITH SFC DWPNTS ALREADY IN THE 65-75F RANGE FM IA INTO MN. 

CURRENT STG CNVTN OVR THE DKTS IS GENERATING CI CANOPY WHICH SHOULD SPREAD DOWNSTREAM ACRS PTNS OF MN.  THIS MAY INHIBIT DIURNAL HEATING ACRS NRN/CNTRL MN DURG THE AFTN WHILE CLEAR SKIES FAVOR STGR HEATING FM ERN NEB ACRS MUCH OF IA...SUGG DVLPMT OF E/W ORIENTED THERMAL BNDRY ACRS SRN MN THIS AFTN.  CONTD HEATING OVR IA AREA WILL RESULT IN STEEPENING LAPSE RATES AND ADDNL DESTABILIZATION WITH CAPE VALUES OF 3500-4500 J/KG LIKELY.  WATER VAPOR IMAGERY ALSO INDCS PRESENCE OF DRY AIR IN MID/UPR LVLS WHICH WILL ENHANCE PTNL INSTBY OF AMS.  VERT WIND PROFILES ARE EXPCD TO BCM INCRGLY FVRBL FOR SVR TSTMS DURG THE AFTN/EVE HRS AS SLY LOW LVL JET OF 35-40 KT BCMS ESTABLISHED FM NWRN MO ACRS CNTRL IA INTO SRN MN...AND 75 KT WLY MID LVL JET STREAK MOVES ACRS THE PLAINS. ANTICIPATED STM-REL HELICITY INDCS LIKELIHOOD OF SUPERCELL DVLPMT...AND PROGD STM-REL MID LVL FLOW AND BRN SHEAR VALUES INDC STG PTNL FOR TORNADOES TO DVLP WITH PERSISTENT SUPERCELL TSTMS. DEGREE OF INSTBY AND PRESENCE OF DRY AIR ALF ALSO SUPPORT THREAT OF LARGE HAIL AND DMGG WIND GUSTS...SPCLY DURG THE EVE AND OVERNIGHT HRS AS MCS DVLPS TOWARD THE MS VLY.       

CURRENT STG CNVTN OVR THE DKTS EXPCD TO SPRD EWD THIS MORNING...AND WE WILL BE MONITORING THIS ACTVTY FOR SIGNS OF ADDNL DVLPMT AND INTENSIFICATION.  PRIMARY SVR THREAT EXPCD TO DVLP BY MID AFTN OVR THE ERN DKTS/NERN NEB/WRN MN AND WRN IA ALG AND AHD OF STG CDFNT...WITH SVR THREAT CONTG DURG THE NIGHT.

...MID MS VLY INTO PTNS OF LWR MS VLY...
WKNG CNVTV BAND OVR MO EXPCD TO CONT SEWD WITH PTNL FOR RDVLPMT OF STG TSTMS THIS AFTN.  NWLY MID LVL WINDS ON EAST SIDE OF UPR RDG ARE FCST TO INCR TO 40-45 KT BY 00Z ETA/12Z RUC...SUGG CNVTN WILL SPRD SEWD THIS AFTN TWD ERN AR/WRN TN/NRN MS.  AMS OVR THIS AREA EXPCD TO BCM MDTLY UNSTBL AS SFC DWPNTS ARE IN THE MID 70S...AND AMPLE HEATING WILL WARM TEMPS TO ARND 90F.  ISOLD SVR TSTMS ARE PSBL THIS AFTN AND EVE WITHIN BAND OF STGST NWLY MID LVL FLOW.

...PUBLIC SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK (AFOS PRODUCT MKCPWOMKC) WILL BE ISSUED AROUND 16Z...
 
..WEISS.. 07/01/97