WWUS36 KMKC 020958
PWOMKC
PUBLIC SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK
STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
500 AM CDT FRIDAY MAY 2 1997

...OUTBREAK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED ACROSS THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY INTO THE OHIO VALLEY...

THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER IS FORECASTING AN OUTBREAK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCING DAMAGING WIND GUSTS...LARGE HAIL...AND A FEW TORNADOES THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT OVER PARTS OF THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES. THE STATES WITH GREATEST RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER INCLUDE...

ARKANSAS...EXTREME SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA...EASTERN TEXAS...NORTHERN AND CENTRAL LOUISIANA...NORTHERN AND WESTERN MISSISSIPPI...NORTHWEST ALABAMA...WESTERN AND MIDDLE
TENNESSEE...WESTERN AND CENTRAL KENTUCKY...SOUTHEAST MISSOURI...AND SOUTHERN PARTS OF ILLINOIS AND INDIANA.

EARLY THIS MORNING A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE AREA WAS LOCATED OVER SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS. THE LOW IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS MISSOURI INTO WESTERN ILLINOIS THIS EVENING...THEN CONTINUE ACROSS NORTHERN INDIANA INTO NORTHWEST OHIO TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT TRAILING FROM THE LOW INTO WEST TEXAS WILL MOVE EASTWARD TODAY...EXTENDING FROM THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY INTO CENTRAL TEXAS BY THIS EVENING AND CONTINUING INTO THE OHIO VALLEY AND LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TONIGHT.

AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT VERY STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS ARE DEVELOPING WITH SPEEDS GREATER THAN 50 MPH FOUND IN THE LOWER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE JUST ABOVE THE SURFACE. SATELLITE IMAGERY IS CURRENTLY SHOWING WARM AND HUMID AIR NOW OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY SURGING NORTHWARD IN RESPONSE TO THE STRONG WINDS. THIS WARM AIR WILL MOVE INTO THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI AND OHIO VALLEYS THIS AFTERNOON TO PROVIDE AN UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT FAVORABLE FOR STRONG THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM FORMATION WILL BE AIDED BY AN UPPER LEVEL WEATHER SYSTEM NOW ENTERING THE WESTERN PLAINS STATES THAT WILL INTENSIFY AS IT MOVES TOWARD THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT. A STRONG JET STREAM ALOFT IS FORECAST TO MOVE OVER THE ADVANCING COLD FRONT WHICH WILL INCREASE THE LIKELIHOOD OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCING LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. THE VERTICAL PROFILE OF WINDS IN THE ATMOSPHERE WILL ALSO FAVOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A FEW TORNADOES...ESPECIALLY THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THAT AFFECTED PARTS OF OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST TEXAS EARLIER THIS MORNING HAVE WEAKENED AS THEY MOVED AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. NEW STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON FROM MISSOURI SOUTHWESTWARD INTO ARKANSAS AND EASTERN TEXAS...WITH SEVERAL SQUALL LINES FORMING NEAR THE COLD FRONT. SEVERE STORMS ARE LIKELY TO SPREAD EASTWARD BY LATE AFTERNOON TOWARD THE MISSISSIPPI AND LOWER OHIO VALLEYS...THEN CONTINUE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS MOVING ACROSS THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY...TENNESSEE VALLEY AND THE CENTRAL GULF COAST REGION.

THIS IS A POTENTIALLY DANGEROUS WEATHER SITUATION. PERSONS IN THE THREATENED AREAS ARE URGED TO REVIEW SEVERE WEATHER SAFETY RULES...AND LISTEN TO RADIO...TV...OR NOAA WEATHER RADIO FOR LATER STATEMENTS AND POSSIBLE WATCHES AND WARNINGS.

...STEVEN WEISS...
STORM PREDICTION CENTER