ZCZC MKCSWODY1 000
ACUS1 KMKC 030131
-MKC AC 030131

CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK...REF AFOS NMCGPH94O.

VALID 030200Z - 031200Z

REF WW NUMBER 235...VALID UNTIL 0300Z.
REF WW NUMBER 236...VALID UNTIL 0400Z.
REF WW NUMBER 237...VALID UNTIL 0400Z.
REF WW NUMBER 238...VALID UNTIL 0600Z.
REF WW NUMBER 239...VALID UNTIL 0700Z.

THERE IS A HIGH RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PORTIONS OF CNTRL MS...CNTRL/NRN AL..FAR NWRN GA.  THE HIGH RISK IS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM TUP 25 W CHA 20 ENE RMG CSG LUL 30 W JAN 15 W GWO TUP.

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 SW GLS CLL GGG HOT UMN MKC 20 NW 3OI 25 WNW OTM 30 NE MMO FWA 45 E LUK HKY CAE 35 WNW CTY.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM PSX 25 WSW AUS PRX FSM PNC MHK FOD 35 SE OSC ...CONT... 25 NW SYR BWI RWI 30 SSW CHS 15 WNW CTY.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 E BLI 45 E PDX 40 NE MFR 15 N 4BK.

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM FORECAST DISCUSSION...
COMPLEX SFC PATTERN WILL CONT OVER MUCH OF THE NATIONS MID-SECTION TNGT AHEAD OF STG UPPER LOW OVER WRN MO WHICH IS NOW BEGINNING TO LIFT E-NEWD.  VERY STG WIND FIELDS ALOFT WERE OBSERVED AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE FM THE CNTRL GULF COAST INTO THE MS VALLEY WHICH SHOULD CONT THREAT OF SVR TSTMS OVER A LARGE AREA TNGT. 

...S-CNTRL/SERN U.S...
SW-NE ORIENTED OUTFLOW BNDRY HAS PROVIDED FOCUS FOR PERSISTENT SUPERCELLS FM CNTRL MS INTO NRN AL THIS EVENING...ALG WITH A FEW DMGG TORNADOES.  EVENING SNDGS INDICATED MDT TO STG INSTBY ACRS THIS RGN WITH CAPES FM 1500 J/KG ALG BNDRY TO 3000 J/KG OVER SRN MS/AL.  HELICITIES WERE IN THE 300-400 M2/S2 RANGE AT JAN AND BHM THIS EVENING...SUGGESTING SUPERCELL AND DMGG TORNADO THREAT WILL CONT FOR SVRL MORE HRS AND WARRANTS CONTINUATION OF HIGH RISK OVER THIS RGN.  ACTIVITY MAY CONT TO PROPAGATE EWD INTO GA/WRN CAROLINAS TNGT. 

FURTHER SVR TSTM/SUPERCELL DVLPMT WILL LIKELY ACCOMPANY SFC CDFNT AS IT MOVES INTO THIS RGN LATE TNGT...ESPECIALLY ALG AND SOUTH OF CURRENT BNDRY WHERE INSTBY WILL BE MDT TO STG.

...SERN TX INTO THE MID MS VALLEY...
ACTIVITY INTENSIFYING ALG SFC CDFNT FM SERN MO INTO EASTERN TX ATTM...SHOULD CONT EWD AS FRONT MOVES EAST INTO LOW LVL MSTR/INSTBY AXIS.  DWPNTS RMND IN THE LOW/MID 70S OVER ERN TX/LA WITH NARROW AXIS OF 60 DWPNTS EXTENDING INTO THE MID MS VALLEY.  GIVEN STG UVV/ CNVGNC...AND APPROACHING 70+ KT MID LVL JET...THREAT OF SVR TSTMS SHOULD INCR ALG CDFNT THRU THE EVENING PSBLY CONTG THRU THE NIGHT ACRS TN/KY. 

...IL/OHIO VALLEY...
INTENSE ACTIVITY OVER THE CNTRL GULF COAST/TN VALLEY HAS LIMITED NWD TRANSPORT OF MSTR/INSTBY INTO THIS RGN TDA.  HOWEVER...VERY STEEP LAPSE RATES ASSOCIATED WITH UPPER LOW /CURRENTLY DVLPG TSTMS WITH LARGE HAIL OVER NRN MO AND SRN IA/ WILL LIFT NEWD DESTABLIZING AMS OVER IL/IND TNGT.  A FEW TSTMS SHOULD PRODUCE LARGE HAIL.

...GENERAL THUNDERSTORM FORECAST DISCUSSION...

...WRN WA/ORE...
LATEST SAT IMAGERY INDICATED CNVTN ROTATING EWD ARND UPPER LOW OVER THE GULF OF ALASKA WAS MOVG INTO THE PAC NW COASTS THIS EVENING. ISOLD TSTMS MAY CONT TO DVLP AS MOIST/ONSHORE FLOW AND SHALLOW INSTBY DVLPS.

..EVANS.. 05/03/97