ZCZC MKCSWODY1 000
ACUS1 KMKC 191442
MKC AC 191442

CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK...REF AFOS NMCCGPH940.

VALID 191500Z - 201200Z

THERE IS A HIGH RISK OF SVR TSTMS THIS AFTN AND EVE OVER PTNS OF CNTRL/SRN IL...EXTRM ERN NO...MUCH OF IND...AND PARTS OF WRN KY...TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 NE SDF BWG 35 SSE PAH PO2 STL BRL MMO SBN PWA 40 NE SDF.

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 N ART 35 NNW MSV CXY CRW 35 WNW CHA TUP MLU TYR PRX PGO UNO VIH LRK 25 WNW OTM ALO MSN 20 NNE MBS.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 N PBC JFK ... CONT ... SSI AQQ ... CONT ...BPT 35 W TPL MWL MKO TBN COU STJ BIE CRI 45 ENE BUB FSD RWF IWD CMX.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 NNW FCA BPI 35 NW VEL ELY SFO.

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM FORECAST DISCUSSION...

SIGNIFICANT SEVERE THUNDERSTORM/TORNADO OUTBREAK PSBL TDA OVR PTNS OF THE MID MS AND LWR OH VLYS. LTST STLT IMAGERY SHOWS MID LVL VORT MAX OVR WRN NEB/KS MOVG ENEWD...WITH ASSOCD 70-80 KT WLY MID LVL JET XTNDG ACRS NM/OK. LOW LVL FLOW OVR THE MS VLY HAS BACKED IN RESPONSE TO APCHG SYS...ADVECTING GULF MSTR NWD. SFC DWPNTS ARE CURRENTLY IN THE MID 60S AS FAR N AS SRN IL...WITH FURTHER NWD TRANSPORT XPCTD THRU THE DAY. MID LVL TEMPS ARE ALSO QUITE COOL OVER THIS RGN WITH H5 TEMPS OF -16 TO -18 INDCD ON 12Z RAOBS. WIDESPREAD LOW CLDS ACRS THIS RGN ARE XCPD TO BURN OFF LATER THIS MORN...WITH STG SFC HTG AND INCRG LOW LVL MSTR RESULTING IN MDT/STG INSTBLY FROM CNTRL IL SWD INTO ERN AR/WRN TN WITH CAPE VALUES OF 2000-3000 J/KG AND LI/S OF -8 TO -10.

TSTMS ARE XPCD TO DVLP LATER THIS AFTN ALG SFC CONVERGENCE AXIS/DRYLN XTNDG FROM WRN IL INTO EXTRM ERN MO. STG LOW LVL FORCING AND DEGREE OF INSTBY SUG STORMS WILL RAPIDLY BCM SVR...WITH VERY LARGE HAIL PSBL. IMPRESSIVE LOW/MID LVL SHEAR AND STORM-RELATIVE WIND PROFILES ALSO SUG SGFNT PTNL FOR SUPERCELLS AND TORNADOES ACRS THE HIGH RISK AREA.

OTR MORE ISOLD SVR TSTMS ARE PSBL THIS AFTN AND EVE OVER PTNS OF ERN IA/SRN WI/NRN IL WHERE INCRG LOW LEVEL MSTR AND STEEPENING LAPSE RATES DESTABILIZE AMS ABV SFC...WITH LARGE HAIL PSBL IN STGR STORMS.