144
ACUS1 KMKC 130600
SWODY1
-MKC AC 130600

CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK...REF AFOS NMCGPH94O.

VALID 131200Z - 141200Z

REF WW NUMBER 0364...VALID TIL 0800Z.
REF WW NUMBER 0365...VALID TIL 1200Z

THERE IS A HIGH RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACRS MUCH OF MO/SERN IA/NRN AR AND MUCH OF IL. THE HIGH RISK AREA IS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM SGF SZL 30 W 3OI DSM CID MMO CMI MTO 20 NW PAH 30 E JBR 35 SSE HRO SGF.

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM ELD PGO JLN TOP LNK GRI 10 NNW BUB ANW PIR ATY MSP OSH GRR 25 WSW TOL LUK BWG 30 E MKL UOX ELD.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM ONP BKE 4BQ FAR 65 E ELO ...CONT... ROC 20 SW ACY ...CONT... 10 SE PSX AUS ACT DUA 20 ENE OKC END GCK PUB 4BL DRA 10 WNW VBG.

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM FORECAST DISCUSSION...

INGREDIENTS FOR OUTBREAK OF SVR TSTMS EXPECTED OVER MUCH OF THE MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON AS VRY STG VERT WIND PROFILE COMBINES WITH MDT/HIGH INSTBY.

SFC LO OVR WRN KS ATTM EXPECTED TO LIFT SLOWLY NE INTO NWRN IA BY EVENING AS WRMFNT CURRENTLY FM NRN MO TO CNTRL IL MOVES N INTO GRT LAKES RGN. CDFNT WL ALSO BE PUSHED INTO WRN IA/MO BY LATE AFTN. SFC DWPNTS IN LOWER 70S ACRS CNTRL OK/SRN AR ATTM EXPECTED TO ADVECT NEWD INTO SRN MO IN ADVN OF CDFNT...AS MID 60 DWPNTS ADVECT AS FAR N AS SERN IA.

THOUGH CLDS FROM ONGOING CNVTN MAY HINDER HTG EARLY IN PD...BREAKS IN CLDS BY AFTN WILL RESULT IN 70S TO LOWER 80S FOR HIGHS ARCS AREA. THIS WL PRODUCE LI FM -6 TO -10 /CAPE TO 4000 J/KG/ OVR MUCH OF MO/SRN IA/MUCH OF IL AND NRN ARK BY THE LATE AFTN. IN ADDITION...WESTERLY H5 SPEED MAX IN EXCESS OF 80 KT WILL EXTEND FROM KS NEWD INTO NRN IL TDA OVERRIDING INSTBY AXIS AND IMPRESSIVE LLJ /H85 WINDS NR 60 KT/.

BNDRY LAYER CNVGNC ALG AND NR CDFNT/DRY LINE EXPECTED TO FOCUS CNVTV DVLPMT THIS AFTN OVR CNTRL MO/SRN IA/NRN AR IN RGN OF GREATEST INSTBY AND WEAKEST CAP. FCST SNDGS OVR RGN YIELD HELICITIES TO 500 INDICATING LO LVL SPEED/DIR SHEAR WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR SUPER-CELLS AND POSSIBLE TORNADOES. EXPECT ACTIVITY TO SHIFT EWD INTO WRN/CNTRL IL TONIGHT AS LOW LVL JET AXIS SHIFTS E IN ADVN OF UPR LO. SVR TSTMS ALSO EXPECTED TO DVLP SWD INTO CNTRL AR DURG EVENING AS CAPPING INVERSION WEAKENS.

ISOLD SVR TSTMS POSSIBLE OVER ERN SD/ERN NE VCNTY OF UPR LO AS COLD MID LVL TEMPS DESTABILIZE AMS. ISOLD SVR TSTMS ALSO POSSIBLE OVR UPR MID WEST/ERN PARTS OF OHIO VLY IN RGN OF STG LOW LVL WAA.

MKCPWOMKC WILL BE ISSUED ARND 10Z.

..EVANS.. 05/13/95

...GENERAL THUNDERSTORM FORECAST DISCUSSION...

MDLS APPEAR TO BE IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT WITH BRINGING NEXT SHRTWV TROF INLAND OVR NRN SXNS OF CA DURG THE PD. THE ASSOCD SFC LO DVLPS OVR NRN CA AND TRACKS SEWD TO NR RNO BY 14/12Z. SINCE LO LVL MSTR WITH THIS SYS WL BE LIMITED...INSTBY SHOULD BE WK. EXPC ISOLD TSTMS TO DVLP IN ADVN OF THE VORT MAX...BUT LIMITED INSTBY SHOULD KEEP TSTMS BLO SVR LIMITS.

THE AMS ACRS PARTS OF THE SERN U.S. IS EXPCD TO BECOMING INCRG UNSTBL THRUT THE PD. WRM AND MOIST AIR WL BE ADVECTED NWD ACRS THE AREA AS THE PLAINS SYS MOVS ENEWD. DWPNTS ARE EXPCD TO RISE INTO THE LWR 60S AS FAR N AS WV. ISOLD TSTMS ARE PSBL AS THE AMS CONTS TO DSTBLZ ACRS THE SE. THE LACK OF STG DYNAMIC FORCING SHOULD PREVENT SVR TSTM DVLPMT.

..REHBEIN.. 05/13/95