877
ACUS1 KMKC 071828
SWODY1
-MKC AC 071828

CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK...REF AFOS NMCGPH94O.

VALID 071900Z - 081200Z

REF WW NUMBER 303 VALID TIL 2000Z.
REF WW NUMBER 304 VALID TIL 2300Z.
REF WW NUMBER 305 VALID TIL 0000Z.

THERE IS A HIGH RISK OF SVR TSTMS THRU ERY TNGT ACRS ERN PTNS OF THE TX PNHDL AND SWRN OK INTO PTNS OF W CNTRL AND CNTRL TX. THE HIGH RISK IS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 NW CSM 30 NW ADM 25 ENE DAL 25 NW ACT 30 E BGS 55 NE AMA 35 NW CSM.

THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS THRU TNGT ACRS PTNS OF S CNTRL KS...MUCH OF OK AND A LRG PTN OF CNTRL TX. THE MDT RISK AREA IS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 ESE PVW 35 NE AMA 15 W LBL DDC 40 NE PNC MLC PRX 35 SW TYR 20 SSE TPL 40 SSE BGS 35 ESE PVW.

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 SE CRP ALI DRT INK 45 NW BGS 25 SSE AMA 25 SSE AMA 30 SE LHX 35 SE AKO 15 S AIA CDR 9V9 3SE DSM COU PBF 7R4.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 S P07 HMN TUS IGM U31 40 WSW BOI 45 NE 63S ...CONT... 25 N ELO OSH LAF CKV 25 E GPT...CONT... 50 S CRP 45 S CRP LRD.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 WNW FMY 25 N PBI.

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM FORECAST DISCUSSION...

LTST SFC ANLYS INDC SFC DRYLN EXTDS FM THE CNTRL OK PNHDL SWD TO JUST E OF LBB TO MAF THRU THE TX BIG BEND. SVRL OUTFLO BNDRYS ARE DRAPED ACRS THE SRN HI PLNS...ONE FM CNTRL KS SWWD INTO THE NRN TX PNHDL AND ANOTHER FM THE ERN TX PNHDL INTO PTNS OF N CNTRL TX. AMS BTWN THE DRYLN AND THE SRN OUTFLO BNDRY IS VERY UNSTBL WITH LI/S RUNNING BTWN -6 AND -11. PROFILER WNDS INDC THAT THE NNEWD TRACK OF THE MID/UPR LVL LO IS BACKING THE WNDS AT 500 MB ACRS WRN TX INTO WRN OK. JAYTON PROFILER INDCS STG VERT SHEAR BLO 600 MB...THEN BACKS SHARPLY ABV THIS INDC THAT THERE IS STG MID LVL CD AIR ADVCTN...BUT THE CELLS MAY NOT BE ALLOWED TO MOV TO THE RGT OF THE MEAN FLO. MRNG HODOGRAPHS INDC THAT A STORM MOTION OF 230 TO 250 WILL BE NEEDED FOR HELICITY VALUES BTWN 300 AND 450 M2/S2. PRIND ARE THAT TORNADO DVLPMT WILL HAVE TO PLAY ON THE SRN BRANCH OF THE MID/UPR LVL JET ACRS TX AS SFC DRYLN MOVS EWD AND INTERACTS WITH SRN CNVTV BNDRY ACRS RGN. MUCH OF THE ACTVTY LOOKS TO BE LRG HAIL AND DMGG WNDS...BUT A FEW TORNADOES ARE STILL PSBL FM NWRN PTNS OFTX INTO CNTRL TX WHERE MDLS INDC DIFFLUENT FLO ALF.

..MCCARTHY.. 05/07/95

...GENERAL THUNDERSTORM FORECAST DISCUSSION...

HAVE MADE A SLGT ADJUSTMENT TO THE GEN TSTM AREA IN PTNS OF THE SWRN PTN OF THE NATION. ISOLD TSTMS HAVE DVLPD LATE THIS MORNING ACRS PTNS OF THE SWRN U.S IN RESPONSE TO THE UPR LO CRNTLY OVR THE RGN. 12Z MDL RUNS SHOW SVRL WK VORT MAXIMA ROTATING ARND THE MAIN LO THRUT THE REMAINDER OF THE PD. ISOLD/WIDELY SCT TSTMS ARE PSBL AS THE UPR LVL THERMAL TROF MOVS OUT OF THE SWRN U.S. INTO THE RCKYS. AERAL COVERAGE SHOULD BEGIN TO DCR WITH THE LACK OF SOLAR INSOLATION.

..REHBEIN.. 05/07/95