836
ACUS1 KMKC 071511
SWODY1
-MKC AC 071511

CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK...REF AFOS NMCGPH94O.

VALID 071500Z - 081200Z

REF WW NUMBER 0299...VALID TIL 1600Z
REF WW NUMBER 0300...VALID TIL 1800Z
REF WW NUMBER 0301...VALID TIL 1800Z
REF WW NUMBER 0302...VALID TIL 2000Z
REF WW NUMBER 0303...VALID TIL 2000Z

THERE IS A HIGH RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER SECTIONS OF EXTREME WESTERN OKLAHOMA...NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE TEXAS PANHANDLE AND EXTREME SOUTHWEST KANSAS. THIS RISK IS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 W GCK 25 WNW END 25 SW ADM 45 NNE ABI 30 E AMA 40 W GCK.

SURROUNDING THE HIGH RISK AREA...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER THE REST OF WESTERN AND ALL OF CENTRAL OKLAHOMA...MOST OF NORTHERN TEXAS AND PORTIONS OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL KANSAS. THIS RISK IS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM PVW DHT 4LJ GLD HLC RSL ICT MLC PRX TYR ACT BWD PVW.

SURROUNDING THE MDT RISK AREA...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 SE CRP ALI DRT HOB TCC TAD DEN CYS CDR 9V9 3SE DSM COU PBF 7R4.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 S P07 4CR 40 NW ONM GUP U17 ENV 40 WSW BOI 45 NE 63S ...CONT... 25 N ELO OSH LAF CKV 25 E GPT ...CONT... 50 S CRP 45 S CRP LRD.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 WNW FMY 25 N PBI.

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM FORECAST DISCUSSION...

DRY LINE/FRONTAL BOUNDARY NOW MOVING INTO ERN NM WHILE VERY MOIST/UNSTABLE AMS EXTENDS AHEAD OF BOUNDARIES THROUGH WRN/CNTRL TX. LIFTED INDICES HERE ALREADY BELOW MINUS 8 WITH AMS MOVING NWD INTO OK AS SURFACE LOW INTENSIFIES OVER EXTREME ERN CO. WITH LOW LEVEL CYCLONE TO THE NORTHEAST...LOW LEVEL JET WILL REMAIN AT OR ABOVE 45 KT THRU CNTRL TX AND OK MOST OF PD...EHANCING LOW LEVEL WARM AIR/MOISTURE ADVECTION THRU OK INTO KS. MID LEVEL WINDS OF 60 KT OR HIGHER WILL ALSO EXTEND THRU MDT/HIGH RISK AREAS AS DEEP UPPER LOW CENTER MOVES SLOWLY EWD...ALLOWING MORE FRAVORABLE UPPER FORCING TO ADVANCE INTO NWRN TX AND WRN/CNTRL OK. EXPECT STRONGEST STORMS TO FIRE NEAR DRY LINE/WARM FRONT INTERSECTION WHERE LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE STRONGEST.

WILL ISSUE PWO SHORTLY.

..ROGASH.. 05/07/95

...GENERAL THUNDERSTORM FORECAST DISCUSSION...

VRY LITTLE CHANGE IN GEN TSTM PTN OF THIS OTLK. MAJOR TROF CONTS MOVG SLOWLY EWD FM SRN PARTS OF AZ ATTM. COMBINATION OF UPR LVL CD AIR AND DAYTIME SFC HEATING SHOULD STEEPEN LAPSE RATES SUFFICIENTLY TO SUPPORT ISOLD TSTMS ACRS THE RCKYS...AND MORE WIDESPREAD CNVTN
ACRS THE PLAINS AND MS VLY THRU THE REMAINDER OF THE PD. THE ONLY CHANGE TO THIS OTLK IS THE REMOVAL OF THE LWR RIO GRANDE VLY OF TX. MORNING SOUNDING FM BRO SHOWS A VRY STG CAP WHICH SHOULD PRECLUDE TSTM DVLPMT.

IN FL...ISOLD TSTMS ARE PSBL ACRS THE SRN PARTS OF THE PEN IN RESPONSE TO THE SEA BREEZE FNT AND DAYTIME HEATING. THE AMS IS SRN FL IS ALREADY UNSTBL WITH SFC BASED LI/S TO -5. LACK OF STG UPR DYNAMICS WL LIKELY PRECLUDE SVR DVLPMT.

..REHBEIN.. 05/07/95