486
ACUS1 KMKC 080150
SWODY1
-MKC AC 080150

CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK...REF AFOS NMCGPH94O.

VALID 080200Z - 081200Z

REF WW NUMBER 0309...VALID TIL 0500Z
REF WW NUMBER 0311...VALID TIL 0600Z
REF WW NUMBER 0312...VALID TIL 0700Z
REF WW NUMBER 0313...VALID TIL 0800Z

THERE IS A HIGH RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 W ADM 40 N ADM 35 E DAL 20 E DRT 10 WNW BWD 25 NNW MWL 25 W ADM.

THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 W BWD 30 WNW SPS 25 W OKC 25 SE ICT 30 NW JLN PGO PRX 35 SW TYR 25 ESE COT 45 WNW DRT 45 W BWD.

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 SE CRP 55 W COT DRT 45 WNW DRT 45 W SJT 25 SSE AMA 15 S AMA 25 SE LHX DEN CYS 40 W CDR 30 E ANW 40 WSW FOD DSM 50 WNW STL 25 NNW GWO 40 W HUM.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 S P07 PHX BFL 45 W RNO EUG 30 ENE BLI ...CONT... 70 NW CMX OSH DAY CKV 30 WSW PNS ...CONT... 50 S CRP 45 S CRP LRD.

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND GENERAL THUNDERSTORM FORECAST DISCUSSION...

LTST SFC ANLYS INDC SFC DRYLN EXTDS FM ERN PANHANDLE SWD THRU BIG BEND OF TX. MAIN LN OF CNVTN EXTENDS FROM CNTRL OK SWD TO JUST W OF DFW AND THEN SWD TO W OF SAT. AMS AHD OF CNVTN IS VERY UNSTABLE WITH SFC BASED LI/S IN THE MINUS 8 TO MINUS 10 RANGE AND CAPE VALUES IN THE 3000-4500 J/KG RANGE. SFC DEWPOINTS IN THE MID 60'S TO LOW 70'S AHD OF CNVTN SHUD FURTHER AID IN SVR TSTM DVLPMT THRU THE END OF PD. EXPECT TORNADIC DVLPMT TO CONTINUE AS CNVTN IS ENHANCED DYNAMICALLY BY STG MID/UPR LVL JET MAX ACRS CNTRL TX AS IT SLIDES NEWD INTO CNTRL OK BY THE END OF PD. ADDITIONALLY, SOUTHERLY 45 KT LOW LVL JET CUTS THRU THIS RGN AS WELL.

ISOLD STG/SVR TSTMS CONT OVR PTNS OF NERN CO IN FAVORABLE UPSLOPE FLOW. LATEST WV IMAGERY SHOWS SIG MID LVL DRYING MOVG NWD INTO THIS RGN...WHICH APPRS TO BE AIDING CNVTN IN A MDTLY UNSTABLE AMS (SFC BASED LI/S TO -4 FM ERN PTNS OF CO INTO NE PNHDL). MAIN SVR THREAT WILL BE LARGE HAIL DURG NEXT SVRL HRS.

..NEWBY.. 05/07/95