MKC AC 171859

CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK...REF AFOS NMCGPH94O.

VALID 171900Z - 181200Z

REF WW NUMBER 0205...VALID TIL 0200Z

THERE IS A HIGH RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVR PTNS OF NRN TX AND SRN/CNTRL OK TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 E CDS 20 W CSM 40 NNE CSM END 20 SE PNC TUL 35 WSW FSM 30 ESE PRX 30 NW TYR 20 ESE MWL 55 SW SPS 15 E CDS.

SURROUNDING THE HIGH RISK AREA THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVR PTNS OF KS...MO...AR...OK...TX TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 ESE HOT UNO 30 NE VIH 35 NE COU 15 SW IRK 20 SSE P35 STJ MHK 15 W SLN 15 ESE DDC 35 WNW GAG 35 WSW CDS 20 SW ABI 25 WNW TPL 35 S TYR 25 NNW SHV 15 ESE HOT.

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 SW MKE 15 SSE CGX DNV 35 N EVV 20 SSE PAH MEM 30 N GLH 35 W MLU 40 S SHV LFK CLL 20 NNW SAT 40 WSW SJT 25 NNW BGS 40 W PVW 30 W AMA 20 NE 1K5 15 E EAR SUX 20 W MCW 40 S LSE 20 SW MKE.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 SE P07 40 SW LBB CVS 45 WSW TCC 40 N 4CR ONM E03 10 NE PRC 40 S SGU CDC PUC CAG SNY 40 W 9V9 30 WSW FAR 25 E HIB APN ...CONT... 30 N JHW 15 NE ACY
...CONT... 35 ESE EWN 20 S DAN 40 W TRI CSV MSL 35 NE MCB BTR 30 SE LCH ...CONT... 35 ENE CRP 50 WSW COT.

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM FORECAST DISCUSSION...

SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER OUTBREAK IS EXPECTED THIS AFTN AND TONIGHT ACRS PTNS OF THE SRN/CNTRL PLAINS AND LWR MISSOURI VALLEY AS STG UPR LOW OVR THE SRN ROCKIES EJECTS ENEWD. IN RESPONSE...SFC LOW...CURRENTLY IN W TX NW OF LBB...IS FCST TO RAPIDLY DEEPEN AND ACLT NEWD LATE THIS AFTN AND TNGT REACHING SE NEB BY 12Z TUE. VRY STG WND FIELDS ALREADY ACCOMPANY THIS SYS...AND THE LATEST NMC MODELS SUGGEST FURTHER STRENGTHENING WITH TIME. BY LATE TNGT WNDS ARE EXPECTED TO EXCEED 100 KT AT 500 MB OVR THE LWR MO VALLEY.

PRIMARY INITIAL FOCUS FOR SVR TSTMS WL BE OVR PTNS OF NW TX NR SFC WRM FNT/DRY LINE INTERSECTION. STMS ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE/PROPAGATE ALG WRMFNT INTO PTNS OF CNTRL OK. VRY UNSTBL AMS ALG AND S OF THE FNT...STG LOW-MID LVL SHEAR (PRODUCING HELICITIES AOA 300)...AND STG STORM-RELATIVE FLOW WL PRODUCE A FVRBL ENVIRONMENT FOR A FEW LONG-LIVED SUPERCELL STORMS AND TORNADOES THRUT THE RMDR OF THIS AFTN AND EVE. OTR SVR TSTMS WL LKLY FORM LATE THIS AFTN FARTHER S ALG DRYLINE PUNCHING EWD INTO W CNTRL TX.

LATER TONIGHT SVR TSTM ACTVTY IS LKLY TO CONSOLIDATE INTO A SQLN AND MOVE ACRS PTNS OF KS/MO/WRN AR...WITH A THREAT FOR SIGNIFICANT WND DAMAGE AND LARGE HAIL...ALTHOUGH ISOLD TORNADOES WL STILL BE PSBL.

..VESCIO.. 04/17/95